Today in my Week 3 NFL betting trends, I’m looking at the Cardinals vs. Jags, Dolphins at Raiders, plus the marquee game of the week between the Bucs and Rams.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray passed for 400 yards Sunday in a 34-33 win over the Vikings
Using Past to Predict Future
One of the unwritten rules in football handicapping is to not place too much emphasis on what happened last week. Whether it’s a high number of turnovers, catastrophic defensive breakdowns or a breakout performance by an offensive playmaker, you want to keep everything in perspective. After all, the NFL odds maker and everyone else in the world saw what you saw, so extreme circumstances will most certainly be built into this week’s line.
Contrary to this entire concept, when you look at what happened in Week 2, it’s hard not to wonder how some of the outcomes weren’t glaringly obvious!
Example No. 1: Panthers (+3.5) over the Saints
Carolina opened with an easy home win over the Jets. Week 2, they caught the Saints in a letdown spot. New Orleans had just laid a beatdown of epic proportions on Green Bay, and QB Jameis Winston pitched a gem, throwing five TDs and no picks.
The Saints were now beat up with injuries, had seven coaches in Covid protocol, and crashed back hard to earth. Carolina rolls, 26-7.
Example No. 2: Patriots (-6) over the Jets
Bill Belichick, coming off a divisional home loss, laying less than a touchdown against a rookie head coach, rookie QB combo.
Read that sentence out loud to yourself, then tell me how you didn’t take a second mortgage and POUND the Pats!
As they say, hindsight is always 20/20. With sports betting, you have to learn from your wins and losses and keep the ship sailing ahead. With my Week 3 NFL betting trends, see if you can find a scenario that sets up as your next winner.
My CFB Game of the Month is Saturday and so far this season, I’ve posted three-straight winning weeks for +$14,950.
Top Week 3 NFL Betting Trends
The Cards vs. Jags is one of six non-conference games on the Week 3 slate.
Arizona (2-0) at Jacksonville (0-2)
Line: Cardinals -7.5 and O/U 52
Arizona played well in Week 1 on the road and got lucky in Week 2, when Minnesota K Greg Joseph missed a 37-yard field goal attempt on the final play. The Cardinals are playing their first of back-to-back away games with the Los Angeles Rams on-deck. That’s a classic look-ahead for this team.
Jacksonville is home for a second straight week, off a loss and getting even more points. The Jags are in Cinci next week for Thursday Night Football. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence faces the 2019 first overall pick Kyler Murray, with the 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow next.
Fantasy Watch: Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) did not practice on Wednesday, Sept. 22.
- In the past five seasons, NFL favorites are 53-97 ATS (35%) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
Murray threw two picks last week, while Vikings QB Kirk Cousins posted a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Keep in mind, though, that Jacksonville’s record as a home dog since 2010 is just 18-33 ATS (35%). That’s the third-lowest win percentage in that span (Giants, Packers).
Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 3 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!
Quick Hits: Week 3 NFL Betting Trends
Miami (1-1) at Las Vegas (2-0)
Line: Raiders -4 and O/U 45.5
The Dolphins were curb stomped 35-0 by the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. With any pride, the Dolphins would bounce back strong, but they’ll have to do so without the No. 1 QB. Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) is out, meaning Jacoby Brissett gets the nod. With 32 starts under his belt, you could do worse than Brissett as a backup. He was sacked four times by the Bills, though, so if Miami wants to keep third-stringer Reid Sinnett on the sidelines, they best work on some protection.
Vegas is coming off a huge upset win at Pittsburgh. They could be a better team than people were giving them credit for, but they just went from being a +6.5 dog to -4 fave. That’s a double-digit transition against the spread, and Derek Carr as ‘chalk’ just screams mediocrity.
- The Dolphins are just 13-26 ATS (33%) following a divisional home loss.
- Miami has played UNDER 60-of-97 times (62%) in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points.
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Sunday NFL Game of the Week
Tampa Bay (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
Line: Bucs -1.5 and O/U 55.5
The Bucs have had an easier start, playing back-to-back at home, getting extra rest off the TNF win, then facing weak Atlantas. Tampa is playing in New England next week, but Tom Brady doesn’t look-ahead to anything. Los Angeles is off a close win at Indy, and have back-to-back divisional games on-deck.
- NFL road favorites off to a 2-0 SU start are 30-19 ATS (61%) in Week 3.
- The defending Super Bowl champ is 21-9 UNDER (70%) when playing on the road with normal rest (no bye), and the posted total is 48 points or greater.
Want more of my Super Bowl champion trends? Of course you do! Check out this article.