This pick was released to clients on January 25, 2024 at 12:50PM ET.
img NFL

Detroit at San Francisco

January 28, 2024
img6:42 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
2 units on San Francisco -325 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 2.62)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 51.5 -107 (risk 1 to return 1.93)
Result:
WIN

San Francisco did not play nearly its best game last weekend, yet still managed a 24-21 win over Green Bay when Christian McCaffrey scored his second touchdown on a six-yard run with 1:07 to play. Green Bay came to play and really performed, but San Francisco is just too good. That win capped a game-winning drive led by QB Brock Purdy, who threw for 252 yards and a TD in rainy conditions. The 49ers failed to cover but are still 24-9 ATS in their past 33 games against NFC opponents and 10-4 ATS as home favorites of 3.5-10.0 points. The 49ers have a big advantage on defense as they finished the regular season #3 in the NFL in scoring compared to the 23rd ranked Lions. Detroit depends on its offense to score enough points to make up for defensive deficiencies, and they need some big plays—such as Derrick Barnes' interception—to put games away. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Lions 408-391, and Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards. Over the past five seasons, underdogs that have allowed an average of 400+ yards per game over their last three games are 51-150 straight-up. Over the last couple of seasons, San Francisco has lost only one of 14 home games vs. NFC opponents. Kyle Shanahan is 11-4 in January games as coach of the Niners and is also 16-5 in the second of back-to-back home games. Without a lot of luck in the turnover department this week, the Lions have very little chance here. Detroit is 12-7 OVER and has gone OVER eight of its past 11 games. Also, the Lions are 17-8 OVER following an ATS win and 19-9 OVER versus NFC opponents. San Francisco is 12-3-1 OVER as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. The Lions have had the luxury of playing their first two playoff games at home and this will be their first outdoor game since Dec. 10 after playing six dome games in a row. Could Detroit catch some breaks and stay within a touchdown here? It's possible. But Cinderella, it's time to go home. Take the 49ers on the moneyline as a Max Play, and bet this game to go OVER the total. 

FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Detroit Lions
14
10
0
7
31
San Francisco 49ers img
0
7
17
10
34
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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