The only thing better than watching NFL games each week is winning your bets.
With my help, you'll win more as you bet on the NFL. If you're tired of losing after trying to pick games yourself, you're in the right place for the 2023 season.
With over two decades of professional handicapping experience and over 3.8 million premium picks sold, I'll help you win more bets every week.
My success rate across all sports speaks for itself, but NFL picks and predictions are my specialty.
I give out free NFL picks each week to 427,586 subscribers.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Golden State seems to do this every round, that is give the opponent a win in an otherwise lopsided series before putting them away the next time out with relative ease. Look for that trend to continue as the Warriors go for another Gentleman's Sweep after losing 119-109 on Tuesday when Luke Doncic scored 30 points for the desperate Mavericks.
It snapped a nine-game winning streak in Western Conference finals games for Golden State and now it goes home where the Warriors have covered nine of their past 11 games. Dallas is 1-5 ATS its last six road games and 9-4 OVER its past 13 on the road and 12-5 OVER overall against teams with winning records.
Game 4 went OVER by 12 points as the teams combined to shoot nearly 50-percent overall. 14 of the past 20 meetings have soared OVER. Golden State lost to Memphis by 39 points in Game 5 when leading 3-1 in the conference semifinals and then blew out the Grizzlies in Game 6.
Look for a similar result tonight. Play the Warriors to cover, and take the OVER.
Why use free NFL picks from a pro handicapper
I've been handicapping the NFL for 22 years. Over that time, I have amassed 752 individual data points on each of 6,518 NFL games played.
Using these statistics, I have made 5,299 premium NFL picks in my career. I am here to share this experience with you.
Of course, you can continue making your own picks and predictions. If that's working for you, great. But for the 99% of sports bettors who lose, I offer a free way to win.
The reality of sports betting is it's extremely difficult. Sportsbooks are cutthroat and stack the odds in their favor. They benefit from overconfident sports fans who think they can predict the outcome. The harsh truth is that most people don't have the time or skills to beat the sportsbooks, so 99% of sports bettors lose. This is why sports bettors often turn to a handicapper like me for expert NFL picks.
Use my free NFL premium picks to win more.
Want pro advice? Get my free NFL expert picks or purchase one of my NFL pick packages.
Prefer to DIY your betting strategy? Check out my free How to Win Series.
Is there any betting value in free picks?
Yes, with a caveat. There’s value in betting free premium picks. There’s much less value in a pick that’s not a premium pick. Some handicappers toss out lower-value picks and offer them for free. These don’t include their reasoning behind the pick, and they aren’t telling their paying subscribers to place the same bet—it’s a throwaway pick.
There is tremendous betting value if you’re getting one of the handicapper’s premium picks for free. These are high-quality picks that will have a good chance of winning, and the results of those picks are counted in the handicapper’s official record. Leveraging these free premium picks gives you a glimpse into what's available for purchase.
All of my free picks are premium picks. Each week during the NFL season, I give out one of my NFL premium picks for free to bettors subscibed to my free newsletter.
Why do I give NFL picks for free?
Good question! Why would I give something out for free—especially something as valuable as one of my official premium picks? The NFL picks I give for free are premium picks that I provide to my paying subscribers. I provide a sample of my premium picks every week because I know it can be hard to trust handicappers, and I want you to be able to sample my best picks ahead of purchasing my handicapping packages.
When you see my detailed analysis that accompanies my free premium picks, and when you see how much they win, I believe you’ll be more likely to give one of my paid packages a try. And, you can bet with my free premium picks for as long as you like. You’ll get no pressure from me. I’m here when you’re ready to buy my best NFL picks with a premium picks package.
Wunderdog Free NFL Football Picks and Predictions
You can find free football picks across the web, but none rival what I provide. It’s what I do best!
The NFL is my bread and butter. I pride myself on having the best long-term NFL record of any expert handicapper.
No NFL handicapper wins more than I do. It’s a bold statement, but I make it because it’s true.
I take pride in my ability to sniff out the "dogs" that deliver the most profit for my clients, increasing profits for my clients over the course of a season.
NFL Betting Philosophy
My NFL picks philosophy is based on these three things:
- History repeats itself. With my extensive databases going back over 22 years, I comb the data to map historical situations over current information to predict outcomes better.
- Human nature is difficult to discern and predict but it’s critical in making winning NFL picks. I consider the psychology of players, coaches, and the betting public.
- The value in betting the NFL usually lies in being contrarian.
These tenets often lead to me finding value on the underdog. Fun fact: this is why I named my company Wunderdog Sports.
My NFL underdog picks aren’t just focused on the spread. I also look for teams with a strong chance of winning the game outright.
Selectively taking underdogs on the moneyline can result in big paydays that set you up nicely for the entire season.
See my full philosophy for betting pre-season, regular season, and post-season.
NFL Predictions Track Record
Any experienced sports bettor or bookmaker will tell you that the NFL is hands down the hardest sport to beat.
Why?
It’s the most popular sport to bet in the United States, so oddsmakers know they can get hammered if they make a mistake.
Posting a soft line on a WNBA game in July won't hurt them much or cost them their jobs. But offering a bad line on an NFL game can be catastrophic.
Not only are the lines sharp to begin with, but they get pounced on immediately if sharps spot any weakness. It makes the NFL the most challenging sport to beat, but I do it. Consistently.
There is no one better at betting on the NFL. Period.
I have won many awards for accuracy from the National Score Prediction League over my 22 years in business. ESPN’s Chad Millman called me “One of the year's top sharps” based on my NFL handicapping.
Here are just a few of my stats:
- While nearly every novice and pro loses in the NFL, I’ve won six out of the last eight seasons (75%) for a net bankroll gain of +$95,050.
- I’ve won seven of the last eight NFL preseasons for a bankroll gain of $46,230.
- I am unmatched in the Super Bowl, correctly calling the primary game outcome in 14 of the last 16 Super Bowls.
- Overall, in the NFL in my professional career, I have won 14 out of 22 seasons (64%) for a bankroll gain of $200,440.
The picks are uploaded weekly, where you can view every win and loss. Nothing is ever hidden. I am the only handicapper who publishes his entire record to be seen and verified. I’ve made over 5,000 official premium NFL picks, which can all be seen here.
Past NFL Premium Picks
Jacksonville (NFL-474) MONEYLINE + Cincinnati at Jacksonville (NFL) UNDER
8:15 PM ET
Kansas City at Green Bay
8:20 PM ET
Cleveland at Los Angeles
4:25 PM ET
Free NFL expert picks I provide
Here are the types of NFL picks you can expect from me:
Underdog NFL picks
Looking for underdog picks? I get it. I'm all about picking the dogs. In fact, my company name, Wunderdog, is a play on the word “underdog” because it’s where I built my reputation. When I started professionally handicapping in 2001, I exclusively picked underdogs in the NFL. There are many reasons to focus on underdogs when making an NFL prediction.
NFL underdogs can win in two ways: outright or against the spread. When winning outright, they pay very handsomely on the moneyline, allowing you to risk a little to win a lot.
While blindly backing underdogs is no longer a winning strategy like it was back in the early 2000s, I still primarily pick NFL underdogs as they are where much of the value lies due to the contrarian nature of winning sports betting.
NFL Consensus Picks
My NFL consensus picks are driven by what's happening in the NFL betting market. Knowing who the public is backing is a key factor in making winning NFL picks. I utilize knowledge of who the squares and sharps are on to inform my final decisions.
Some use a strategy of always fading the public. I utilize this strategy when it makes sense, but it’s not always the wisest choice. The public has gotten much smarter over the last couple of decades. While going against the public consensus in the NFL used to be a surefire way to win, now we must pick our spots more carefully.
My NFL premium picks take into account the public consensus as one necessary factor, but I don’t recommend you ever just bet blindly on this information. My How to Win at Sports Betting masterclass provides insight in how to determine when it’s the betting public (squares) betting heavily or professional sports bettors (sharps) making moves.
Free NFL Computer Picks
If you’re going to handicap yourself and make your own NFL picks, analytics are critical.
However, most people aren’t going to make their own model.
I’ve created and honed a model that generates data-informed picks for every NFL game.
Computer picks will never be as good as premium picks because they don’t take into account injuries, psychology, and historical betting systems.
If you’re going to do your own NFL picks, NFL computer picks are a necessary piece of the puzzle, but simply betting computer picks blindly isn’t sufficient to win.
Do NFL computer picks always win? No, of course not. My computer picks are very accurate and I know of no others that perform better. But also realize that computer picks can't always take into account all of the relevant information about games. My premium NFL picks offer the highest chances of winning.
Free Computer Picks vs. Free Premium Picks
While my premium picks contain my NFL best bets, I also offer some picks for free.
Every NFL free pick I provide through my email newsletter is one of my valuable premium picks.
In contrast to free computer picks, my free premium picks take into account all of the factors necessary to win.
This includes computer analytics, models, and many other data points and relevant considerations to increase the chance of winning.
NFL Picks Against the Spread
Sportsbooks offer a way to even out the odds when good teams are playing bad ones by setting a spread on the game (spread betting).
Favorites must “give” points to underdogs to make it a fair bet on both sides. These are called ATS bets and most people come to me for expert NFL picks against the spread.
Through my paid premium picks service and free premium picks, I provide betting advice on which teams to bet on against the Vegas spread.
After the sportsbooks “even out” the teams, I tell you which side will cover the spread, with a detailed analysis and reasons why the bet makes sense.
NFL Moneyline Picks
Don't want to worry about the point spread? Just want to pick the winner, and that's it?
That's what the moneyline is all about. Advanced NFL bettors often bet the moneyline. NFL moneyline bets allow you to bet on which team will win without regard to the margin of victory.
When betting on favorites, you have to risk more than you win, and when betting on underdogs, you win more than you risk if your team pulls off the upset.
I offer moneyline NFL picks, usually on underdogs.
NFL Over/Under Picks
Betting on the Total of a game allows you to have a rooting interest in the total points scored by both teams.
You can bet either "over" or "under" the posted total.
When betting NFL over/unders it doesn't matter which team wins or by how many points.
All that matters is whether the total points scored by both NFL teams exceed or fall short of what the oddsmakers predicted.
I offer over/under recommendations (totals picks) with my free and premium NFL picks.
NFL Parlay Picks
Who doesn't like parlays? NFL parlays are one of the most popular betting options. While betting parlays all the time is a sure way to deplete your bankroll, you can still have fun betting parlays from time to time. Football parlays are a key part of my Parlay Club.
NFL Office Pool Picks
A popular way to wager on the NFL is through an NFL Office Pool (also known as an NFL Confidence Pool).
These pools don't usually have anything to do with point spreads or totals but rather focus strictly on predicting the winner of every game each week.
Office Pools typically require the participant to predict the winner of all games and rank them in priority order based on confidence.
This is why these are sometimes referred to as NFL Confidence Pools. I offer a product that does all the work for you.
I use my algorithms and betting knowledge to predict the outcome of all games, ranking them from most likely to least likely.
My office pool picks give you the best chance to win your pool.
NFL Weekly Picks
I offer regular season weekly NFL picks with detailed analysis and reasoning throughout the NFL season, starting with NFL week 1.
These picks follow my NFL regular-season betting philosophy.
For each week of the regular season, I analyze every game, taking into account a mulittiude of factors.
I use statistical analysis, injuries, trends, bettor behavior, and hundreds of historical situations to predict winners against the spread, on the moneyilne, and over/under the total including parlays.
I send out one free premium pick per NFL week while paying subscribers get all of them.
NFL Preseason Picks
Can you make money in the NFL pre-season? Hell yeah! It's a great way to build your bankroll for the upcoming season.
I excel at winning in the NFL pre-season because I track history extensively.
Coaching tendencies and motivation based on past season performance are just two of the predictive angles I use for the pre-season.
NFL Playoffs Picks
The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season.
While being contrarian and going with underdogs is often more profitable in the NFL regular season, betting the NFL playoffs requires a shift in gears.
The cream rises to the top in the playoffs, where the stakes are higher, and the best players and coaches are competing.
Super Bowl Picks
There's no better opportunity than betting on the Big Game. I have more success betting on this game than any other sporting event of the year.
I'm unmatched in my Super Bowl betting prowess. I almost always get the winner correct. But on top of that, the Super Bowl offers a slew of other fantastic betting opportunities through props.
Super Bowl props are bets on obscure outcomes in the game. Since it's such a big game and there are two weeks to prepare, oddsmakers put out hundreds of prop bets.
And since they only do this once per year and cater to a betting public that is generally clueless, they make many mistakes—mistakes they don't make on other games.
I've been able to exploit these errors over the years to the tune of massive profits on the Big Game.
You can get a free Big Game pick on my free newsletter and all of my main picks and props via my premium NFL picks subscription.
Tools for NFL Betting
While my free premium NFL betting picks will give you the best chance to win, I realize you may want to make sports picks yourself.
Looking for self-help tools for the 2023 NFL season to help in making your own NFL picks? I’ve got you covered. Check out these free tools to help you win more of your own NFL picks:
Consensus Data
Knowing who the betting public favors can help you by knowing if your hunch is something others agree with or not.
A popular betting strategy is to “fade the public” by going the opposite way of the masses. While this doesn’t work blindly, it can be an arrow in your quiver.
Check out my NFL consensus data
Lines and Odds
If you bet on NFL, you will want to see up-to-the-minute lines and NFL odds for the upcoming NFL games. This can help you find the best odds.
My NFL lines and odds page gives all the data you need for full-game, first-quarter, and first-half betting, including spreads, moneylines, and totals.
NFL Football Resources
Statistics, analysis of coaching staff, team depth, and game plans are all part of my handicapping approach to making money while betting on the NFL preseason.
Betting the underdog has been my NFL regular season strategy for years. Here I explain six reasons why betting on the underdog makes more sense, and how you can profit.
My take on how betting on the NFL postseason differs from the regular season. Important information to know when making NFL playoff picks.
If you are still determining if halftime betting is for you, educate yourself on how to bet the NFL halftime, including how to follow line movement, and why it is the key to success.
The process of hiring a professional handicapping service and what to expect from a football handicapping service vs. the do-it-yourself approach.
Wunderdog Sports Picks is an excellent long-term investment, and I want you to know how much you can expect to win vs. other investment opportunities.
Thirsty for more sports betting information? Check out the Dog Pound, an extensive resource for all my sports gambling articles and advice.
Check out my FREE NFL pool picks page and you could be the top dog in your pool. I release my straight-up NFL pool picks every Thursday afternoon.
Access all of my previous NFL premium predictions. Win or lose, I give you visibility to all past picks, including my in-depth analysis.
Real-time lines and odds for all upcoming NFL games. Check out the spreads, totals, moneyline odds, and first-half spreads and totals.
If you want to know how the public is betting, this is your page! A collective source for public consensus information on all upcoming NFL games.
Purchase a premium NFL picks package and get access to my weekly picks, detailed write-ups, game information, and top-of-the-line customer service.
Your source for my computer predictions and analysis on all upcoming NFL games.
My free video series, "How to Win at Sports Betting," is the ultimate guide for bettors of all experience levels. Learn about bankroll management and much more.
I've posted exclusive NFL football betting videos throughout the past couple of years to help give you an inside edge against the bookmaker. You'll also find snippets from my How to Win series, plus other sports betting tips.
I get it. You're hesitant to invest in a sports betting service. That's why my picks packages are backed by an ironclad guarantee. My picks will win for you, or you'll automatically get an equivalent subscription for free until they do. No strings attached.
Updated NFL scoreboard with consensus betting data, plus current/closing odds for each matchup.
FAQs
What is ATS in NFL?
ATS stands for "Against the Spread" and is a popular method of betting on NFL games. When you place an ATS bet, you're not simply picking which team will win the game, but rather, you're betting on whether a team will cover the spread set by the oddsmakers.
How can I find the best NFL picks against the spread?
To find the best NFL picks against the spread, you can refer to expert NFL predictions and analysis from reliable sources. I provide free NFL picks and predictions that are specifically tailored for betting against the spread.
Are NFL picks services worth it?
Great question. They can be worth it, but they aren't always worth it. You have to believe you will be able to cover the cost of the service or else why pay for it? I've written about how to evaluate the math on this question. I also cover how to evaluate football handicapping services.
Can I bet on the NFL?
Yes, you can bet on the NFL. Sports betting is legal in many jurisdictions, and there are numerous online sportsbooks and betting sites that offer NFL betting options. You can place bets on individual games, season-long outcomes, and various prop bets.
What are the best NFL betting sites?
The best NFL betting sites are those that are reputable, offer competitive odds, a wide range of betting options, and are user-friendly. Hit me up for a list of who I recommend.
How can I get free NFL picks?
You can get free NFL picks from various sources, including expert handicappers like myself, sports betting websites, and betting forums. My picks are based on extensive analysis and can help inform your betting decisions.
What are NFL point spreads?
NFL point spreads are a way to level the playing field between teams of different skill levels. The favorite team is assigned a negative point spread, indicating they need to win by a certain number of points to cover the spread. The underdog team is assigned a positive point spread, indicating that they can lose by a certain number of points and still cover the spread.
What are the best NFL bets?
The best NFL bets are subjective and depend on various factors such as the teams involved, injury reports, weather conditions, and expert analysis. Some common types of NFL bets include point spread, moneyline, and over/under bets.
When does the NFL regular season start?
The NFL regular season usually starts in early September. The exact date can vary slightly from year to year, so it's always a good idea to check the latest NFL schedule for the specific season you are referring to.
How does betting on the NFL playoffs work?
Betting on the NFL playoffs works similarly to betting on regular-season games. You can place bets on individual playoff games and the overall outcome of the playoff round or Super Bowl. The odds and betting options may vary, so reviewing the available options before placing your bets is essential.
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