I often get asked, "So, how much can I expect to win if I use your picks?" It's a great question. While there isn't a simple one-word answer, we can answer the question by looking at an expected range of possible outcomes.
IN THIS ARTICLE...
- How much can you win with my picks?
- What are the chances you’ll lose?
- What's the most likely outcome?
- Should you play more games or less?
- How does this compare to other investment options?
Of course, we can't predict with absolute certainty how many bets we’ll win or lose, but based on years of prior results, we can predict a range.
We can take an educated guess as to how much we might win or lose over any number of bets.
Based on my past performance over the past 25+ years, here's what I can tell you is likely to happen if you bet my picks over a large number of bets:
You’re more likely to win than lose with my picks
Even when we account for the juice (vig/commission) sportsbooks charge, my long-term results indicate we are much more likely to win than lose.
You can win, and you can win a lot
If my future performance approximates my past performance, you can expect to win a lot (more than you can make in most other investments).
In fact, it’s reasonable to expect to do about four times better than the stock market.
If past performance repeats, we have about a 65% chance of doing better than the stock market for any given year.
You can also lose
Just like any investment, there’s risk involved. Sports betting consists of both skill and luck.
If you want to gain and win money, sometimes you have to endure the pain of losing money. Sometimes we get lucky, and other times luck appears to be benched.
There’s no way to avoid this.
So, in the end, what can you expect?
Here's a graph showing the likely expected outcomes from utilizing my picks over an entire year (3,500 bets):
The green lines are the likelihood of an event happening. The higher the line, the more likely it is to occur.
The numbers along the bottom are the total units won or lost. Units are simply a measure of money.
I recommend starting with a bankroll of 100 units and risking an average of 1.5 units per bet made.
So if we start with 100 units and win 20 units, we have achieved a 20% return on investment (ROI).
The results in the middle represent the highest probability results. The most likely outcome is that we win around 42 units.
What does that mean?
It means if you risked $100 per unit, you would win around $4,000. That's a 42% ROI, starting with a $10,000 investment (bankroll).
The stock market typically returns around 10% annually, so our expected outcome is about four times better!
This graph also shows other outcomes are possible. The further you move away from the middle, the lower the chances we’ll see that result.
Based on our Assumptions, Here are the Expected Outcomes
- Our most likely expectation is to win about +42 units (+40% ROI).
- We have a 67% chance of making between -38 and +122 (-38% to +122% ROI).
- We have an 80% chance of making between -64 and +150 units.
- We have a 95% chance that the results will fall between -121 and +205 units.
- We have a 68% chance of winning (and a 32% chance of losing).
- We have a 25% chance of at least doubling our money (a 100% or better return).
- We have a 65% chance of beating the historical stock market return of 10%.
You can improve your winning odds by ensuring you always "get the best of the line."
By shopping multiple sportsbooks for the best lines and odds, you always win more (often a lot more) than playing with just one outlet.
Smaller Numbers = Higher Variance
Variance in sports betting is very high, and over the short run, anything can happen.
But if you bet my picks over the long term, you should expect to win.
While I can’t guarantee you won’t lose because that chance is always there, I can confidently say you have a better chance of making more money with my picks than you do by playing the stock market.
How much you win or lose will depend a lot on luck. The more bets you make, the more minor role luck plays–your results will be more stable.
So, if you can withstand the higher variance of sports betting and treat it like an investment, you can come out way ahead while having a lot of fun!