Early Super Bowl LV betting trends, player updates and line moves as the world gets set for the matchup of all matchups. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, going at it from Raymond James in Tampa, Florida.
Brady is Back
By now, if Tom Brady hasnâ€™t won the hearts of even the coldest, anti-Patriots football bettors of all-time, he has certainly won their respect. The GOAT led his new team to an 11-5 straight up record. He then took them on the road for three-straight playoff wins against formidable foes. Guys like Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. The results speak for themselves:
Wild Card Round: Bucs at Washington = 31-23 W
Divisional Round: Bucs at Saints = 30-20 W
NFC Championship: Bucs at Packers = 31-26 W
Then if it wasnâ€™t enough to be playing in his 10th career Super Bowl, TB12 gets to be the first-ever team in 55 tries to host and play in the game. Itâ€™s really just incredible.
Read on for my top Super Bowl LV betting trends and get my picks for the big game here!
Bradyâ€™s playoff record in games with a short line is 9-6 ATS (60%), but Mahomes is 22-4 away from Arrowhead, covering at a 63% rate
(1) Kansas City at (5) Tampa Bay
Sunday, 02/07, 6:30 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3 and O/U 56
Tampa Bay has won seven consecutive games. They have scored a minimum of 30 points in six of those seven, averaging 34.3 per game.
- Any team off a bye week thatâ€™s scored 30-plus points in three or more consecutive games is 18-10 ATS (64%).
Nice win percentage, but 28 games is a very limited sample. When you start looking at teams like Tampa that have scored 30-plus points in six or seven of their past seven games, the story starts to turn.
- Teams with 30-plus points in six or seven of their past seven games are 29-49 ATS (37%).
The latter includes a recent run of 5-15 ATS (25%) that began in 2017. The high-scoring team that hit the pavement hard that February 5 was the Atlanta Falcons. Does it ring a bell? It should, because Brady was on the other side, engineering one of the greatest comebacks in Super Bowl history.
- In the past 10 years, home teams off a game where 50-plus points were scored are 42-75 ATS (36%) when theyâ€™ve scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games.
- Extremely high totals of 53 or more played OVER at a rate of 77% (17-5).
Itâ€™s worth noting that in each of Bradyâ€™s two previous Super Bowl wins (2016, 2018), he also rode in on impressively high scoring streaks. The Chiefs donâ€™t shape up at all like the Rams two years ago (13-3 win). So is this going to be more of a 34-28 shootout like the win over Atlanta?
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Super Bowl LV Betting Trends: Totally Covered
Patrick Mahomes is in the midst of his second playoff bye week in a month. He also took Week 17 off and enjoyed a nice home field advantage against the Browns and Bills. Taking any young quarterback out of his element to face the GOAT on the road might be trouble, but Mahomes is not any young QB.
- Mahomes has won 12 consecutive games away from Arrowhead, outscoring opponents 29.8 to 20.
Teams that have shown a strong ability to win on the road during the regular season are only 11-25 ATS (31%) from December out. In the playoffs, that record goes to 9-13 ATS but in the Super Bowl, these road warriors are just 2-7 ATS. The UNDER is 7-2. The Chiefs benefitted from this lopsided angle in 2019 when the Niners, who were 7-1 SU on the road, forced a small line from bookmakers. We know what happened there.
- Super Bowl faves with six or more regular season road wins are 3-10 ATS but KC, who won six road games in 2019, plus a neutral site game over the Chargers, flew in the face of that trend.
Mahomes (toe) is practicing in full and will be 100% by game time. RB Le’Veon Bell (knee) was limited during practice this week but expects to play an important role behind lead back, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip).
Bucs wideout Antonio Brown missed the game in Green Bay. Heâ€™s taking this week off and weâ€™ll have to closely monitor his progress next week.
Battle of the Heavyweights
Tampaâ€™s defense ranks sixth overall, allowing 5.1 yards per play. The Chiefs held the Bills to 5.2 yards per play, but it was evident that Buffalo was lacking a secondary downfield option to stretch the field. KC will bring Travis Kelce, the Bucs will likely have their full assortment of offensive weapons. Stats aside, this isnâ€™t shaping up like a low scoring game but we have all seen how Super Bowls in the past have taken on a heavyweight fight type of feel. Neither team wants to make the first mistake.
- All Super Bowl totals with a total of 50 or greater are 7-3 UNDER.
- The straight up winner in Super Bowls with a total of 48 or more is 10-0 ATS. Only three of these 10 games finished with more than 52 total points.
Each of these offenses ranks Top 6 in yards per play, and Top 3 in passing yards per completion. The offensive matchup is in a class of its own and while Bruce Arians is 10-1 ATS as a home dog up to +3, heâ€™s also 10-1 UNDER in those matchups.
Andy Reidâ€™s post-bye record is leaning UNDER at a 22-6 rate (79%). In tightly lined road games, Reid has a sparkling 47-30 ATS (61%). That includes his 17-6 ATS (74%) record as coach of Kansas City.