Football picksJanuary 13, 2022

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Picks, Trends, Betting Tips

Six games highlight the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, including the first-ever Monday Wild Card game. The NFL Playoffs are kicking into gear and I’ve got the football betting news you can use!

NFL super wild card weekend first ever monday wild card game

The Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams meet for the first-ever Monday NFL Wild Card game


Super Wild Card Weekend = NFL Betting Paradise

In a sports betting world that thrives on sensationalism, only the NFL could take a watered-down collection of playoff teams and immediately turn it into an epic event. The NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is invading our living rooms Saturday, and barging right through to Monday like the Kool-Aid Man on Red Bull.

And we’re loving every minute of it.

It coincides perfectly with New York sports betting becoming legal, in-person and online, and this Super Wild Card Weekend is about to shatter every record in the book for wagering.

I’m planning a huge card for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend, including a ton of Max Plays. The goal is to enjoy these games and make money doing it, so let’s go.

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Six Games Highlight Super Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 was a blast, with one of the best season finales to any sport in history. The Packers and Titans earned a first round bye, and nobody wants to face either of those teams on rest.

The AFC matchups for Super Wild Card Weekend are the Raiders at Bengals, Patriots at Bills, and Steelers at Chiefs.

In the NFC, the Eagles visit the defending champs, San Fran is in Dallas, and Arizona travels to the Super Bowl host city, Los Angeles. It’s the first-ever Monday Wild Card game and the fact that it’s divisional is gravy.

(5) Las Vegas at (4) Cincinnati
Line: Bengals -5.5 and O/U 49

A couple of 10-win teams and the Raiders needed every last bit of their Week 18 matchup to make it happen. The record for road dogs off an OT home win this season is 5-0 UNDER.

  • Wild Card games the past three seasons have stayed UNDER at a 10-4 pace (71%).

The Raiders have endured more than you’d wish on your worst enemy this season but they did just get TE Darren Waller back, and the Bengals D was tied for fifth-worst against tight ends.

Cinci will look to air it out, but it leaves QB Joe Burrow vulnerable to an attack by a front seven that got better as the year went on. Led by Maxx Crosby, the Raiders bring pressure on 24.6% of dropbacks, and the Bengals adjusted sack rate is #31.

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(6) New England at (3) Buffalo
Line: Bills -4 and O/U 44

This line opened at 43 and was bet up early in the week. Throw the first game between these two out. Saturday’s forecast is sunny, high of 12, with 10-15 mph winds.

Buffalo was a strong starter this year, going 4-1 SU/ATS in its first five, and they enter this contest on a four-game win streak.

  • Playoff home faves on a streak of 4-plus wins are 19-29 ATS (40%)

Teams that bookended the regular season with strong performances like Buffalo, show a 55% OVER record since 2002, going 8-3 OVER more recently. When the total was between 42-29 points, the OVER is 26-16 (62%).

Over the last five years, my NFL Playoffs picks are 86-58 (60%) for a +$41,110 return – Order my NFL Playoffs package for Super Wild Card Weekend now!


Six Wild Card Teams Sunday, One Goal

Sunday’s action kicks off at 1 pm ET with the defending Super Bowl champs hosting one of two teams to make the playoffs with fewer than 10 wins.

(7) Philadelphia at (2) Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs -8.5 and O/U 46

For the Eagles, some are already blowing off their chances and looking ahead to what next year might bring. QB Jalen Hurts improved his completion percentage (61.3), threw for 3,000 yards, and accounted for 26 TDs (16 passing, 10 rushing). Overall, he had a QB rating of 87.2 (#22). HC Nick Sirianni insists this team isn’t going down to Tampa for the sights.

  • Playoff road teams that won fewer than six games the previous season are 3-10 ATS when listed as dogs of +3 points or more.

Philly will try and work it’s league-leading ground game (159.7 RYPG) against Tampa’s stout run D. The Eagles need to make each drive count because you know Tom Brady will. The Bucs have encountered major injuries in the second half but RB Leonard Fournette, LB Lavonte David, and LB Shaq Barrett return.

(6) San Francisco at (3) Dallas
Line: Cowboys -3 and O/U 51

This is one total that was getting bet up in early action, going from 49.5 to 51. San Francisco earned their trip to the playoffs with a big comeback win over the Rams. The Niners are YAC-yard specialists and this matchup against the Dallas D is must-see TV.

  • Dallas is 13-2 OVER when both teams score 20 points.
  • Road dogs off an OT road win are 32-22 ATS (59%).
  • Road dogs that score 24-plus PPG are 88-46 ATS (66%) following a close win by 3 points or less.

Dallas led the NFL in takeaways, averaging 2.0 per game. Their turnover margin was tied for best overall with the Colts and Packers. The Niners average 25.1 PPG, rank first in red zone scoring (66.7%) and first overall in yards per play (6.1).

(7) Pittsburgh at (2) Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -13 and O/U 46.5

Big Ben retirement parties are trending and so far, the Steelers are 2-0 in those games. Pittsburgh is live in the same angle as the Niners, coming off an OT road win, but the huge line variance is worth noting.

  • Road dogs getting more than a TD are 6-0 ATS off an OT road win, four of six winning outright.

My computer predictions against the spread show Kansas City winning this game 28-16 SU, indicating ATS value on the Steelers. Remember, these are computer-derived matchups and do NOT represent my official picks.

Teams that allow more than 60% completions are a 70-percent UNDER bet the past 20 years. The Steelers have climbed into the top 10 for standard passing D metrics, as well as DVOA, and when teams that struggled against the pass earlier in the year get hot, they are 53-17 UNDER (75%). If the total is between 42-29 points, the record for this profile goes to 30-13 UNDER (70%) over the past five seasons.

This game is getting 55-percent action on the OVER according to my public betting consensus, but the downward line moves suggest sharp money coming in on the UNDER. Keep an eye one the Super Wild Card Weekend odds and check final injury reports to see who’s in, and who’s out.


Monday Night Football, Playoff-Style

The Cardinals were 7-0 at one point this season but they went 1-4 SU/ATS in their past five games. Arizona allowed three of their past five opponents to score 30-plus points, including the Rams who beat them 30-23 on Monday Night Football in Week 14.

(5) Arizona at (4) Los Angeles 
Line: Rams -4 and O/U 49.5

Playoff home faves faced with divisional revenge are just 4-9 ATS, going OVER at a 9-4 rate the past while. Home faves off a home OT loss are also mired in a slump, going 2-10 ATS since 2012 (although both ATS wins were this season).

  • HC Kingsbury has a 17-7 ATS record in all road games with Arizona
  • HC McVey is 19-9 ATS off a divisional game but riding a 1-5 ATS streak when playing the second of back-to-back divisional games.

This is shaping up like a great matchup and if you want to get all my premium picks for Super Wild Card Weekend, just click the button below. I’m rockin’ Max Plays, sides and totals, building on a strong second half where I hit eight winning weeks out of 10 (80%).

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