Super Bowl LXI gives us a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX (2015) when the Patriots beat the Seahawks thanks to Malcom Butler’s interception on the goal line. For anyone (like me) who bet on Seattle in that one, “Why didn’t you hand the ball off to Lynch!?!” will forever be etched in our minds. That pick was my lone Super Bowl loss on the main game pick in a 15-year span from 2008 through 2022. The last four years I have split and it’s time to notch another winner. At least we don’t have to deal with the Chiefs this year, thank goodness.
These two teams deserve to be here. Both only lost three games all season. They own the top two scoring defenses and both are top eight in scoring offense. Seattle won games by an average of 12 points per game while the Pats won by 10 per game. These are dominant teams, fairly evenly matched. My computer pick for this game has Seattle winning by about 3.5 points. The public is on the favorite, Seattle. Not surprising given the recent performances of these teams. Seattle took the bye during Wildcard weekend and went on to win their next two games by a combined 39 points, averaging 36 points per game. Meanwhile, New England beat the Chargers, but only scored 16 points in that game. They beat Houston and then struggled on offense again vs. Denver, scoring only 10 points. The Pats have stumbled a little in the eyes of the public, while Seattle has been steamrolling.
What will happen here?
When Seattle has the ball
The Seahawks like to throw the ball. Somehow, Sam Darnold established himself as a top 10 QB this season. His connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been devastating for opponents this season. JSN led the league in receiving yards and dismantled the Rams' defense last week. Rashid Shaheed has given enough to force teams to not throw all of their resources at JSN.
On the ground, Seattle was solid if not elite, with the combination of Zach Charbonnet and Keneth Walker III combining for over 1,500 yards. This was a balanced attack all year, converting well on third down. They were remarkably consistent this year. With Charbonnet suffering an ACL tear in the diviisonal round, Walker had to work hard to churn out 62 yards on 19 carries vs. the Rams (and 49 more yards through the air). The loss of Charbonnet is not insignificant.
During the regular season, Seattle struggled offensively vs. a well-known foe, San Francisco (scoring just 26 points in two meetings), but against everyone else, the Seahawks averaged over 31 points per game. The Patriots' defense gave up just 17.3 points per game, holding 13 opponents to under 21 points each. At the end of the season, this Pats defense was peaking. In the playoffs, New England has allowed just 8.7 points per game, and dating back to the last couple of games of the regular season, they have held four of five opponents to 10 points or less, allowing just 9.2 per game over that stretch. Of course, the weather in the the three Patriots playoff games was atrocious, and their defense benefited from this. If we exclude the playoff games, New England allowed 18.8 points per game.
The only QB who really torched this New England defense was Josh Allen. As good as Sam Darnold has played this season, he’s no Josh Allen. Where the Pats excel is in rush defense: 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Seattle is likely going to struggle on the ground in this one, especially with half of their dual-threat out. When Seattle faced defenses similar to New England’s this year, the Hawks averaged 20 points per game. New England gave up 28 points per game vs. offenses similar to Seattle’s. I expect Seattle to move the ball between the 20s but possibly be challenged to score touchdowns. Overall, the numbers suggest Seattle to score around 23 points in this game.
When New England has the ball
The Pats offense was prolific for most of the year, but struggled down the stretch. Overall on the season they scored 27.2 points per game (compared to 29.2 for Seattle). The offensive difficulties came in the playoffs where they averaged just 18 points per game. New England put up 16 vs. the Chargers, 28 against Houston and just 10 vs. Denver.
Did Drake Maye and this offense lose their mojo or was it something else? I posit a lot of it (most? all?) was due to the weather conditions. All three of those games were cold, snowy, and windy. Against Houston, there were eight combined turnovers in what was described by analysts at the time as “a swirling white canvas.” The Pats managed to score 28 points in this game anyway. In the other two playoff games, their offense really struggled. In the matchup versus the Chargers, it was freezing temperatures with heavy, sustained winds of 20-25 miles per hour and gusts up to 36 mph. It was one of the windiest games of the entire NFL season. Scoring doesn’t come easy in those conditions. And in Denver, the weather was even worse! It was basically a blizzard with real-feel temperatures reaching single digits with snow falling. Wind gusts exceeded 20 mph and the field was almost unplayable in the 4th quarter.
So, I am not putting a lot of weight on these games offensively. Heck, in the five games prior to those terrible conditions, New England’s offense averaged 34.4 points per game and on the season they scored 31+ points eight times!
But Maye and company face a stiff test here. Seattle’s defense is the best in the league, having allowed just 17.1 points per game. And at the end of the season, they improved, allowing 13.5 points per game over their final eight regular-season and playoff games.
Matthew Stafford, however, exposed them twice during that run, with the Rams putting up 37 on December 7th and 27 last week vs. the Seahawks. Stafford was off-the-charts this season and was clearly the top QB in 2025-26. Drake Maye isn’t in that league, but he’s been excellent. I have him rated the 6th best QB this season. Maye is the second-best QB Seattle has had to face all season and the other guy torched them.
When Seattle faced excellent offenses this season, they allowed 23 points per game. When New England played elite defenses this season, they scored 27 points per game. Note these are small sample sizes, but based on these numbers, New England may be expected to also score around 23 points in this game.
Super Bowl matchups featuring a big mismatch are a thing of the past. They are all fairly close, and this year is similar. Two great teams that deserve to be here. We have two elite offenses and defenses. Either team can win this game.
I feel like this spread is off, primarily due to the recency effect. Seattle was anointed “the #1 team in the NFL” weeks ago, and getting past the Rams only cemented that in people’s minds. They have been steamrolling and seem destined.
But let us not forget that the Rams very easily could have won last week. A fortuitous fumbled punt in their own red zone led to a Seattle touchdown. Remove that somewhat random play, and the Rams are playing this Sunday instead of Seattle. Even with that catastrophic turnover, LA had a chance to go up by 3 points with 2:11 left in the game, but they missed a very makable 48-yard field goal. If that’s not enough, the Rams missed a very makable 44-yard field goal earlier in the game. Of course, the Rams got some breaks too - I’m not saying it’s all one-sided. But what I am saying is that the Seahawks are fairly fortunate to have won the NFC Championship game. They needed some help. The public and even the linesmakers are essentially ignoring this, largely because of New England’s offensive struggles in Denver.
Throw in the fact that Mike Vrabel seems to have the “it” factor and I like New England. Yes, Mike Macdonald has done a tremendous job in Seattle. But Vrabel won coach of the year for a reason. He took a 4-13 team and turned it into a 14-3 team. The guy looks 100% in control on the field and his players trust him. I give Vrabel a slight edge.
The Pats certainly can win this game outright. I think they probably do at least half the time if these teams played each other 100 times. I couldn’t argue with a 2-to-1 moneyline bet here. But let’s go with the spread in case the Patriots lose a close one.
Also take the OVER here. We have two of the best offenses and two of the best defenses, but I think this total is set a little low. Seattle is 11-8 to the OVER this season including 2-0 in the playoffs, while New England is 12-8 to the OVER including a 6-2 OVER mark the past two months. Those two UNDERs? Crazy bad weather. Seattle averaged 26.4 on the road this season while New England scored 27.3 per game away from home. Number one seeds in the playoffs coming off back-to-back favorite covers are 44-20 to the OVER. Meanwhile, teams like New England, coming off a straight-up win as a favorite, but failing to cover the spread, are 86-41 OVER when facing a team off a home win. New England is 22-13 OVER as an underdog over the past three seasons. They are also 12-2 OVER when facing opponents that average 5.7+ yards per play.
Take the UNDER in the first quarter as well. Play-calling in Super Bowls tends to be very conservative at the start compared to other games. Both teams want desperately to avoid losing the game in the first quarter. Players are on edge and nerves are high. Only three Super Bowls out of the last 21 have seen more than 10 points scored in the first quarter. And this game features the top two scoring defenses in the league. The total for the first quarter is set at 9.5 with juice and it’s worth it to get the win if 9 points are scored.
