If you are betting Super Bowl 56, and you know you are, the more information the better. Today in my first look at the big game, sides, totals and scoring trends to help make sense of the line.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford is 3-0 in the NFL Playoffs this year, exactly three more wins than he earned in 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions
Primer for Betting Super Bowl 56
This year’s Super Bowl betting setup is on a different planet compared to last year, in a uniquely great way. Showtime Mahomes and the GOAT have been replaced by up-and-comer Joe Burrow and blue collar vet Matthew Stafford.
Cincinnati has been to this dance twice before, and ironically both times were against the Niners team that Los Angeles barely scraped past in Sunday’s NFC showdown. The Bengals needed an historic comeback vs. the Chiefs to punch their ticket, and if they weren’t America’s darling underdog last week, they sure are now.
The Rams were here on the big stage just a few short years ago, embarrassed by Tom Brady’s Patriots, but they slayed the dragon in the Division Finals and then pulled every trick to ensure their return trip.
Home field advantage? Sure, doesn’t every host team make it to the Super Bowl betting table these days! The Bucs in 2021 were the first team to host a Super Bowl and take part, the Rams are now the second, and it’s helped make them the clear favorite.
108 Super Bowl participants were unable to host the big game through the first 54 editions, but now it’s happening in back-to-back seasons.
Los Angeles shed another curse during their win over the Niners, ending a six-game slide against their rival, and in football terms – six-straight losses to a foe you meet twice a year feels like a decade. They did it in front of a majority-Niners fan base, too (barely), but none of that matters now.
What matters is that Rams HC Sean McVay is getting his second chance at a Lombardi Trophy while Stafford and Burrow battle for their first. It’s the perfect culmination to a wildly entertaining NFL Playoffs, and I’ve got the first bit of Super Bowl betting snacks you need to get set.
My Max Play win on the Bucs in last year’s big game moves my Super Bowl game picks to 13-1 since ’08. Including props, my overall Super Bowl record is 82-43 (66%) during this time – Pre-order my Super Bowl LVI picks today!
Top Trends for Betting Super Bowl 56
As the crowds dispersed from SoFi following LA’s 20-17 win over San Francisco, bookmakers released a Super Bowl betting line of Rams -3.5 and O/U 50 points. Early consensus betting action favored the Rams but that has swung towards Cinci (64%). The OVER shows 55% preference from bettors, and yet the total continues to drop in half-point increments.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Rams -4 and O/U 48.5
There’s no historic edge in betting Super Bowl totals OVER or UNDER, as it’s split down the middle at 27 apiece (no posted total in Super Bowl I). The UNDER has hit three-straight, however, and the past three games that went OVER all involved Brady’s elite Patriot squads.
- From 2001 until 2011, the UNDER was 7-4 in Super Bowl betting, but all four OVERS ended with at least 50 combined points scored.
The past five meetings between these two teams have all stayed UNDER the total, but that list dates back to 2003. 50 Cent topped the charts with In da Club, Lord of the Rings 3 was breaking box office records, and the Rams’ top two players were Marshall Faulk and Torry Holt.
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Average pointspreads when betting Super Bowl favorites in the past two decades have been -4.9 points per game, right inline with where this one is headed.
- Super Bowl underdogs the past 20 years are 13-7 ATS (65%)
The Pats beat the Rams (2018 season) and KC’s incredible fourth quarter catapulted them past the Niners (2019), but favorites of more than a field goal are just 2-10 ATS (17%) since the 2001 season.
- Dogs of +3 points or more that have won between 6-8 of their games straight up since Week 11 are 11-3 ATS (79%) the past 20 Super Bowls.
Cinci is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS since late-November and this profitable group of candidates are the type of teams that are peaking at the right moment. Streaks can add undue pressure, both to the team and to the betting line. The NFL’s most-successful long term coaches often realize that they don’t need to win every game, just the ones that matter.
- The average line in these games was +5.4 points with a total of 48.3. The average score was 26.8 to 22.8 (49.6 points in total).
One more thing if you are adding Over/Under picks to your Super Bowl betting portfolio:
- Teams off an overtime win in the Conference Championships are 5-1 UNDER in Super Bowl betting since 2007.
The most recent occurrence was in 2018, when both the Patriots and Rams were coming into the big game off OT wins over the Chiefs and Saints. It resulted in a 13-3 yawner, but it could be another indication why this game is getting bet down at so many shops.