Football picksDecember 19, 2020

Week 15 NFL Picks from the Pound

My Week 15 NFL Picks from the Pound looks at two teams whose Season Win Total hopes are sunk. I also have a free pick this week from the Texans at Colts. Get a preview and find out how you can get free picks for every sport that I cover, weekly.

Season (Win Total’s) Greetings

One of the great things about betting NFL futures is that you have a little stake on every game that team plays throughout the season. It can mess with your head, like when you want a team to win for your OVER but you like the other side against the spread, but hey that’s a bridge every futures bettor has to cross once in a while.

At this stage of the season, some teams are starting to cash OVER tickets while others are securing their spot in UNDER-ville. Saturday’s favorites are two of nine NFL teams that have already hit the jackpot for Season Win Total (SWT) bettors that invested on the OVER.

  • The nine SWT OVER winners through Week 14 are the Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Dolphins, Packers, Rams, Steelers, Titans and Washington.

One of the many things I spent my time on during the sports-free lockdown of 2020, was trying to see if there was an edge to be found once teams had either hit their SWT, or guaranteed a failure based on win percentage. The data sampling was small, but it pertains to two matchups on the Week 15 NFL card.

Read on for my Week 15 NFL betting trends, plus a free pick from the Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts!

Week 15 NFL picks

The Vikings and Bears are on the outside of the NFC Playoff picture looking in, Minnesota holding a slight edge thanks to Week 10 win at Soldier Field

Based on NFL Season Win Total data from the past 10 years, the Cowboys and Vikings are live in one profile that suggests fading these teams on Sunday. Home teams at this stage of the season with no chance to clear their SWT are 10-23 ATS (30%).

Note: Click on the team names for a link to my Week 15 NFL Matchups page.

San Francisco at Dallas
Sunday, Dec. 20 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: 49ers -3 and O/U 45

The Cowboys (4-9) scored a moral victory in QB Andy Dalton’s old stomping grounds, but they are still two games off the pace in the NFC East. Washington, New York and Philadelphia each face a difficult matchup this week, so it’s now or never time for Dallas, but ‘must win’ doesn’t always translate into ‘will win’. I will say this for the Cowboys. They are starting to finally show some cohesiveness on offense.

  • Seven straight games with two or less turnovers.
  • Five of six games with 100-plus rushing yards.

Coach Mike McCarthy also had a 24-9 ATS record in home games off a road win with Green Bay, but he had a much stronger supporting cast at the time. Join the conversation on this game @wunderdogsports.

Chicago at Minnesota
Sunday, Dec. 20 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: Vikings -3 and O/U 46.5

The Bears (6-7) finally snapped their six-game losing streak with a 36-7 win over Houston. One of the losses during that skid was a 19-13 setback to these Vikings at Soldier Field. It was the kind of Monday nighter that makes this week’s Pittsburgh at Cincinnati game look good!

  • Chicago’s road record when seeking revenge for a same-season divisional loss is 5-15 ATS.

Minnesota is one of four teams concluding the home portion of its schedule this weekend. The others are Miami, Atlanta and Tennessee.

  • Since 2015, teams playing their final home game in Week 15 are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS (85%).

The Vikings are 0-4 ATS since beating the Bears in Week 10. Small divisional home faves on an ATS losing streak are 2-11 SU/ATS when faced with revenge. The question for any dog bettor in this game is whether you can trust Mitchell Trubisky.

Free Week 15 NFL Picks

I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. As we countdown towards Sunday, my free Week 15 NFL pick is from the AFC South battle between the Texans at Colts.

Houston at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, Dec. 20 at 1:00 PM Eastern
Line: Colts -7.5 and O/U 51

Indianapolis won the first meeting, 26-20, two weeks ago in a game that was close throughout. Only two points were scored in the second half. Deshaun Watson arguably outplayed Philip Rivers as he finished 26 of 38 for 341 yards and ran for 38 yards on seven carries. The Colts cruised through a weak Las Vegas defense on Sunday in a 44-27 win, but the Colts have allowed an average of 30.7 points their last four games.

Romeo Crennel says his team is playing to win. It also looks as if David Johnson and Duke Johnson could both be in the lineup. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off the biggest game of his young career. In last week’s win, Taylor rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.

Sign up for my free Week 15 NFL picks, get this play along with free picks for every sport that I cover. My free NFL picks are 9-4 (69%) this season and 183-120 (6%) all-time for a bankroll gain of +$72,950.