Football picksNovember 19, 2020

Week 11 NFL Trends and Betting Tips

My Week 11 NFL trends preview has the matchup information and betting tips you need to get your head in the game for Sunday’s huge slate. In this installment, I look at the ever-changing QB crop in the NFL, post-bye week stats for head coaches, and the Thursday night showdown between the Cardinals and Seahawks.

Scouting the Next Great Starter

Lately it seems that there has been at least one NFL quarterback making his season debut every Sunday. Alex Smith was up last week in Detroit, completing 69% of his passes for 390 yards in a losing cause. Jake Luton stepped in for Jacksonville a couple of weeks ago and although he is 0-2 straight up, the Jags are 2-0 ATS with a combined six-point margin of defeat against Houston and Green Bay.

The Dallas duo, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert took their turns in Week 8-9. And of course there is Tua Tagovailoa, fifth overall pick of the Dolphins in the 2020 NFL Draft. In three starts, plus a couple of snaps vs. the Jets in Week 6, Tua is completing 63% of his passes for 519 yards. His 10.6 yards per completion doesn’t rank inside the Top 20 among starters, but the second most important stat next to wins, and the one that leads to them more often than not, is TD-to-Interception ratio. Tagovailoa is 5:0 in that department and it has helped make the Dolphins a road favorite this week in Denver.

  • Non-divisional road favorites of less than 7 points are 4-15 ATS in Denver from October out.
  • Since 2015, the road team in this situation is 1-6 SU/ATS and the list of visitors that went away empty handed includes the Packers, Patriots and Steelers.

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Week 11 NFL trends, 2020

Rookie QB Tagovailoa is getting excellent support from the run game and his Dolphins defense


Atlanta at New Orleans
Line: Saints -4.5 and O/U 50.5

This week the new starting QB spotlight is on New Orleans, where most signs point to Jameis Winston getting the call in place of Drew Brees. Winston was six for 10 in relief last week, but when he dropped back in the red zone, you could sense his fear and tentativeness. 88 career interceptions, including 30 in 2019 alone, will have a PTSD affect on anyone. The question is whether Winston can get past it after a week of taking first team reps in his new surroundings.

  • Winston’s record as a home favorite with Tampa was 5-10 ATS and in four of five covers, he was laying 3 points or less.
  • As a divisional road dog, Matt Ryan is 13-6 UNDER and when they were here in Week 10 last year, the Falcons beat the Saints 26-9 straight up.

Ryan has covered six of his last seven starts as a road dog, including wins this this year at Minnesota and Carolina. The big concern with Atlanta was the injury riddled defense, that had given up 34.5 points per game (PPG) through Week 4 (0-4 SU). In five outings before their bye, Atlanta trimmed that average down to 22.6 PPG and with a Brees out of the picture, it’s possible this total in the Superdome is a tad overblown.

Week 11 TNF Tip Pool

Arizona at Seattle
Line: Seahawks -3 and O/U 57

The Cardinals took down Buffalo in the final seconds last week with what was an easy Play of the Year candidate. They were on the other end of potential POY in Week 7, when DK Metcalf tracked down Arizona safety Budda Baker for a touchdown-saving tackle, but the Cards came out on top of that shootout by a score of 37-34. Tonight the Hawks get their chance to even the series.

  • Coach Pete Carroll’s home record when seeking revenge is 21-9-2 ATS. The OVER is 20-11-1, bolstered by a current streak of 8-straight to the high-side.

The scores during Seattle’s revenge-fueled, eight-game OVER streak averaged 33-31 in favor of the Hawks. Odds for this game are six points greater than the recent average (51), and while there is no questioning each team’s offensive ability, is it possible this line has gone too far?

  • Divisional totals greater than 50 on TNF have resulted in 3 OVERS and 10 UNDERS.

Access all of my Week 11 NFL selections, including primetime games, right here!

Week 11 Trends and Betting Tips

Teams off a Bye: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets

Bye Week Teams: Bills, Giants, 49ers and Bears

Bye On-deck: NA
*Thanksgiving next week; everyone plays. In Week 13, the Buccaneers and Panthers are scheduled for a break and that will wrap the regular season bye week schedule.

Kansas City at Las Vegas
Line: Chiefs -6.5 and O/U 57

Andy Reid was famous for his post-bye week success in Philadelphia. For the most part, that has continued with the Chiefs. Reid’s post bye record is 14-7 ATS and the UNDER is 15-5-1. The past two years, Kansas City faced the Raiders each time off their bye week and slapped two 40-burgers on the Silver and Black. The finals were 40-33 and 40-9.

Dallas at Minnesota
Line: Vikings -7 and O/U 48.5

Perhaps less famous is the fact that from 2006-14, then Packers coach Mike McCarthy won nine straight games ATS off a regular season bye. McCarthy went 1-3 SU/ATS off a bye from 2015-18, and that’s just part of the reason he’s no longer coaching in Cheeseland. A new start in Dallas, however, could be just what this veteran needed to spark a new streak.

  • As a road dog of +3 or more off a bye, McCarthy’s regular season record is 4-0 ATS. All four games were played away from home.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 11 NFL trends and betting tips!