Exciting Win or Head Home Matchup: Raiders vs Chargers Week 18 Prediction Preview, Odds and Trends


A win or go home showdown between the 9-7 Chargers and the 9-7 Raiders with a playoff spot up for grabs

Raiders vs Chargers Preview

We’ve got a great matchup in the AFC West as we enter the inaugural NFL Week 18. It’s win or go home as the Chargers head to Allegiant Stadium to take on the Raiders. It looks like it will be a battle of the QB’s as Justin Herbert and Derek Carr battle on Sunday Night Football.

AFC West rivals last meet on the first Monday Night in October where the Chargers beat the Raiders 28-14 at SoFi Stadium. These two teams look a little different then when they met in October. Jon Gruden was still the coach of the Raiders before his messy departure from the team. The Chargers were up 21-0 before the Raiders closed the gap in the fourth quarter. Possessing the ball for nearly 10 of the final 15 minutes, the Chargers were able to close and hand Las Vegas its first loss after starting the season 3-0.

Both teams are presented with a unique and unlikely scenario, that a Week 18 tie could assure an AFC playoff berth for both the Los Angeles Chargers and their Sunday Night Football foe, the Las Vegas Raiders. Chargers head coach Brandon Staley isn’t entertaining the notion of a full-game kneel-down.

“That’s a pretty loaded scenario. That is an all-time coffee shop scenario,” Staley told The Rich Eisen Show on Tuesday. “I feel like I’m with my buddies at the University of Dayton. I think we all respect the game and the NFL shield and the integrity of this game far too much to be complicit in something like that. This game matters too much to too many people, and we want to play our best and be proud of the result one way or another.”

Now, everything is down to a final game, only the most consequential of this NFL regular season. The Chargers are trying to advance to the playoffs for the first time since January of 2019. Only 12 players remain from that team. The Raiders are trying to move on for just the second time since the franchise lost Super Bowl XXXVII following the 2002 season.

Raiders vs Chargers Odds

Opening point spread: Chargers -2.5
Opening point total: 47.5
Opening moneyline: Chargers -140, Raiders +120

Raiders vs Chargers Trends

  • Los Angeles has eight wins against the spread in 16 games this year.
  • The Chargers have an against the spread record of 3-6 in their nine games when favored by 3 points or more so far this season.
  • Los Angeles has hit the over in 56.2% of its opportunities this year (nine times over 16 games with a set point total).
  • This year, the Chargers average just 2.2 more points per game (27.6) than the Raiders give up (25.4).
  • Los Angeles is 7-3 against the spread and 8-2 overall this season when the team scores more than 25.4 points.
  • The Chargers average 56.3 more yards per game (387.1) than the Raiders allow per outing (330.8).
  • In games that Los Angeles churns out more than 330.8 yards, the team is 8-6 against the spread and 9-5 overall.
  • The Chargers have turned the ball over 20 times this season, seven more turnovers than the Raiders have forced (13).

NFL Computer Predictions: Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

For the latest computer picks on the Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers, along with every other NFL game, check out my weekly NFL Football Game Matchups. Straight-up computer projections, ATS projections, public consensus betting data, even scoring forecasts that can help with Over/Under betting.

These computer-derived matchups do NOT represent my official picks, as there is a lot more analysis required (injuries, trends, situations and other technical analysis). If you want my full analysis, detailed write-ups, and official picks, be sure to get my email newsletter.

Sunday’s computer projections for Week 18:

Las Vegas Raiders: 25.953 points (51% likely to win SU)

Dallas Cowboys: 25.214 points (49% likely to win SU)

The computer gives an slight edge to the Chargers and leans OVER the current posted total. Check the latest NFL odds here and don’t miss my premium Week 18 NFL picks.