Football picksDecember 16, 2021

NFL Over/Under Betting Trends for Week 15

Check out the top NFL Over/Under betting trends for Week 15, including a look at the Saints vs. Bucs, and Cowboys-Giants matchup!

Over/Under betting trends for week 15

The G.O.A.T. is 1-3 ATS in his past four games against the Saints, throwing 8 TDs and 7 INTs


Over/Under Betting Trends on the Rise

NFL Over/Under betting trends in Week 14 were dominated by high scoring games, leading to an overall weekly record of 11 OVERS and 3 UNDERS.

  • Week 14 was the first time since Week 5 (9-7 O/U ), that the OVER prevailed with a higher percentage for Over/Under bettors.

The scoring average was also up dramatically last week, from 42.8 average points per game in Week 13, up to a season-high 50.9 points per game in Week 15.

Oddly enough, the overreaction from bettors that have recently lived through — and are still in the midst of — the greatest era of high scoring football ever, has not been as excessive as you might expect.

Normally, a big double-digit OVER weekend results in a series of inflated totals from bookmakers. Disproportionate numbers that point-hungry bettors lap up, like scoring junkies just forced to watch a month-straight of nil-nil soccer. But other than Thursday Night Football (O/U 52.5), not one of the totals for Week 15 is greater than 49 points. Not yet, anyway.

Keep an eye on my NFL Consensus Picks at the site. This is a great indicator of which games are attracting the most action from ATS and Over/Under bettors. When used in conjunction with my weekly NFL odds, you create an opportunity for yourself to get the best of the line. And in football betting, every half-point matters.

Top 5 Over/Under Betting Trends for Week 15

Based on my early Over/Under betting data, these are the five games bettors are hammering at the book. Watch for these totals to rise, and be on the lookout for potential contrarian value on the UNDER. The percentage listed after each matchup is the amount of action coming in on the OVER thus far.

1. Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers: 76% OVER

The Chiefs (9-4) have won six-straight and they are on a 4-0 ATS run, pulling their betting record up to 6-7 ATS on the year. KC has still played UNDER at a 54% rate, and 5 of their past 7 games have stayed UNDER by double-digits.

  • In divisional games where at least one of the teams is coming off a home win, the UNDER is 104-59 (64%).

2. Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: 68% OVER

The Niners (7-6) bounced back from a loss in Seattle, edging the Bengals in overtime 26-23. They are now 4-1 SU/ATS in their past five games, playing OVER the total in three-straight.

  • Home teams winning 50-60% of their games (Niners) have a record of 76-36 UNDER in the second half of the season when facing a sub-500 foe.

Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 15 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!

3. Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: 67% OVER

The Vikings (6-7) are clinging to a shot at a Wild Card, tied with four other teams just a game back of .500. It’s amazing what this new playoff format has done for a league that didn’t need much fixing. Minnesota had extra rest off last week’s Thursday nighter and since 2015, they are 5-1 ATS after a Thursday game. The one loss was in 2019 against Kansas City (Super Bowl champs that year).

  • Bad teams like the Bears (4-9 SU) are 31-9 UNDER (78%) the past 10 seasons when the total is between 42-49, and they are home off double-digit loss to a division rival.

4. New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 66% OVER

Tom Brady has uncharacteristically struggled against the Saints since taking over in Tampa Bay (10-3), but he’s still favored by -11 points in this Sunday Night Football divisional matchup. New Orleans (6-7) is desperate, and could be getting healthier on the offensive and defensive lines, but check the injury report and watch the line before getting a bet in on this one.

  • Revenge-minded home teams with a winning record (Bucs), are 21-3 UNDER (88%) at this stage of the season when avenging a road fave loss.

Note: Tampa Bay (-4) lost to the Saints in Week 8 by a score of 36-27.

5. Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: 63% OVER

The Cowboys (9-4) own the division and the Giants (4-9) are looking to play spoiler. New York was blown away 44-20 in Week 5 at Dallas, and they are 6-1 ATS their past seven vs. the division. Dallas, however, is 10-3 ATS their past 13 overall and 10-1 ATS in their past 11 conference games.

  • In the second half of the season, teams with a winning record (Cowboys) are 32-13 UNDER (71%) when coming off a divisional road win.

I’m going for my sixth-straight winning season with College Football, and kicking Bowl season off with 10 plays for Friday-Saturday. So far, my CFB bankroll is up +$19,190 and I’ll have picks every week from now until the CFP National Championship, so don’t miss out! 

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