Football picksDecember 15, 2021

AFC South Showdown: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Week 15 Prediction Preview, Trends and Odds


The 2-11 Houston Texans travel to Jacksonville to take on the 2-11 Jaguars

Texans vs Jaguars Preview

This could be one of the most interesting matchups for Week 15 as the first overall pick will most likely fall to the loser of this game. Last week might of been the worst week in Jaguars history, with all of the drama surrounding head coach Urban Meyer. The Jaguars had lost 4-straight games coming into their matchup with the Titans last Sunday, where they lost 20-0, making it 5-straight losses. The Texans can’t say they have done better with their only wins this season against the Titans and the Jags.

This game is the rematch of the season opener, which the Texans won. Texans QB Tyrod Taylor was efficient, hitting 21 of 33 passes for 291 yards and two touchdowns. The signal-caller added 40 yards on the ground on four runs. On Sunday, Davis Mills will be the starter. Head coach Dave Culley announced a couple days ago the first-year QB out of Stanford will start.

Davis Mills has shown promise but doesn’t have a good amount of playmakers and has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,737 yards with 8 touchdowns and just as many interceptions this season. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is coming off a game in which he threw a career-high 4 interceptions. Lawrence also lacks weapons on offense and has played well in spite of the Jags’ offensive struggles.

If the Jaguars are going to win an of their remaining games this season, this Texans game is it. They are the home team and their defense played well last week vs Titans. On the other hand, the Texans stunned the Titans in Week 11, so Jacksonville can’t afford to take them lightly.

Texans vs Jaguars Odds

Re-opened point spread: Jaguars -3.5

Over/Under: 46

Moneyline: Jaguars -178, Texans +150

Texans vs Jaguars Trends


  • Jacksonville is 4-9-0 ATS this season.
  • The Jags have not covered the spread this season (0-1 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
  • So far this season, just two of Jacksonville’s games have hit the over.
  • In six of 13 games this season, Jacksonville and its opponents have gone over 40.5 points.
  • The Jaguars have been listed as the moneyline favorite only one other time so far this season, a game they lost.


  • Houston has put together a 5-8-0 record against the spread this season.
  • When playing as at least 3-point underdogs this season, the Texans have an ATS record of 5-7.
  • Houston and its opponents have combined to hit the over five out of 13 times this season.
  • Houston’s games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 40.5 points in five of 13 outings.
  • This season, the Texans have been the underdog 12 times and won two of those games.

NFL Computer Predictions: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

For the latest computer picks on the Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars, along with every other NFL game, check out my weekly NFL Football Game Matchups. Straight-up computer projections, ATS projections, public consensus betting data, even scoring forecasts that can help with Over/Under betting.

These computer-derived matchups do NOT represent my official picks, as there is a lot more analysis required (injuries, trends, situations and other technical analysis). If you want my full analysis, detailed write-ups, and official picks, be sure to get my email newsletter.

Sunday’s computer projections for Week 15:

Houston Texans: 16.512 points (35% likely to win SU)

Jacksonville Jaguars: 21.388 points (65% likely to win SU)

The computer gives an edge to the Jaguars and leans UNDER the current posted total. Check the latest NFL odds here and don’t miss my premium Week 15 NFL picks.