Basketball picksJune 9, 2021

Mid-Season WNBA Betting Trends and Analysis

We have reached the quarter-pole of the 25th WNBA betting season, so I figured we should take a look at some of the betting trends league-wide, as well as Championship odds.

WNBA betting favorite Seattle Storm

Defending WNBA Champion and preseason favorites, Seattle Storm, are on the hunt for a repeat as they have jumped out to a 7-2 start. And following that strong start, they remain the betting favorites to win the WNBA Championship at +225 odds behind stars Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird.

The Western Conference is deep this year with the second favorite Las Vegas Aces (+250) showing up big so far with a 7-3 record while the other two Western Conference stalwarts, Phoenix Mercury (+1100) and Los Angeles Sparks (+2000) have also remained relatively level on the odds board.

The second-best record in the WNBA, however, belongs to the Connecticut Sun. At 8-2 overall, the Sun have seen their odds to win the WNBA Championship improve a bit to +1000. With the New York Liberty (+2500) holding the second-best record in the East at just 5-4, the Sun are looking like strong, early contenders to represent their conference in the Finals this fall.

And in spite of slow starts, teams like the Washington Mystics (+550), the Minnesota Lynx (+800), and the Chicago Sky (+650) have actually seen their odds improve some. It is still early in the season, and the odds-makers likely do not want to give up on them quite yet.

2021 WNBA Betting Championship odds

Who let the Dogs out? A look at league-wide results, road underdogs have been very profitable so far this season. While home teams are 27-26 straight up this season (24-28-1 ATS), road dogs so far are cashing at a very profitable 61% rate (20-13 ATS). Even home underdogs are profitable this season at 11-8-1 (58%). Totals have been a complete coin flip so far this season as 26 games have gone OVER while 26 games have stayed UNDER.

Lynx center Sylvia Fowles

Team-wise, the Sun has the best ATS record in the league so far at 8-2. Their strong defense has also led to a 7-3 mark to the UNDER and an unbeaten mark at home (5-0 SU). Surprisingly, the favored Storm is just 3-5 ATS (7-1 SU). So while they are winning, they haven’t been covering. The OVER is 6-2, though, in Seattle’s eight games. The Phoenix Mercury (5-2-1 ATS) and Atlanta Dream (5-2 ATS) have also been big moneymakers vs. the line so far this year.

Minnesota has such a rich history that its rough start, 3-5 SU, has a lot of experts scratching their heads. The Lynx are winless on the road (0-3) and are a money-burning 2-6 ATS on the season, yet are still only +800 to win it all. They continue to get love from the oddsmakers as the Lynx have been favored in five of their eight games, and they are 1-4 ATS when favored.

Another favorite to win the title, Chicago, is just 2-7 SU and ATS (0-5 SU at home). The Sky have dropped seven straight games (0-7 ATS) after opening the season at 2-0 (2-0 ATS). And until their last two games, against Phoenix and Los Angeles, they have been favored in each.

Will the betting trend of the underdog continue? Only time will tell, but I can tell you that a 60% win-rate is huge in sports betting, and it is one of those trends you will at the very least want to pay attention to.

The WNBA will be taking breaking next month for the Olympics and is set to return for their stretch run with the WNBA Playoffs set to begin on September 23.

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