Indiana Fever vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

Minnesota is the better team by a wide margin at 32-10, needing only one more win or one Golden State loss to lock up the No. 1 seed, and that math matters tonight. The Lynx still have two games left against this same Fever team before the regular season ends, so there's no need to play tonight like it's the only one that counts. Indiana, at 27-15, is a different story: the Fever are still fighting for a top-four seed and first-round home court, and they're coming off a 16-point loss to Washington they need to answer. Indiana also leads the league in scoring at nearly 97 points a night, with Caitlin Clark probable after a back issue and Kelsey Mitchell healthy alongside her. I had Connecticut and all those points against this same Minnesota team two nights ago, and the Lynx could only beat a 10-32 club by a dozen, hardly the form of a team about to blow out a motivated home dog. Grabbing Indiana with the points. 

We had Portland at a plus number against Indiana on Friday, and it didn't hold. Caitlin Clark logged her fourth career triple-double, and the Fever pulled away for their fifth straight win, the first team in WNBA history to clear 100 points in five consecutive games. Kelsey Mitchell has been just as locked in, running her streak of 20-point games to 13 straight. That's the version of Indiana walking into Target Center today, and it's walking into a serious test. Minnesota owns the best record in the league, has won nine straight of its own, and is 11-4 at home this season. That gap is real, and I'm not pretending otherwise. But my mathematical model keeps landing on live, well-rested, high-scoring underdogs catching a number like this one, and Indiana checks every box. Fresh off Friday's win, the Fever have the firepower to keep pace with anybody, and Aliyah Boston is good to go after a knee scare earlier in the week. Getting this number with a team playing this well is exactly the number I want to be on the plus side of. Indiana is the right side on the spread this afternoon.

Two of the top three offensive teams in the WNBA meet up tonight, with oddsmakers listing the Lynx as a small road favorite. Minnesota is No. 1 in scoring (86.7 ppg), shooting (47%), and 3-point shooting (38.5%). The Lynx are on a 13-6-2 run OVER the total. Indiana is third in scoring (84.9 ppg), field goal shooting (45.6%), and from long range (34.3%). They just clinched a playoff spot after scoring 97 and 94 points in wins over Chicago and Washington. Indiana is on a 6-4 run OVER the total, as well as 5-2 OVER at home. Take Minnesota/Indiana OVER the total.

Indiana is in a quick revenge spot as it tries to end a four-game skid. The Fever lost 95-90 to the Lynx on Friday and it sailed OVER by 20.5 points for Indiana's third OVER in a row. Indiana is 8-2 OVER its past 10 games against teams with winning records and the Fever have covered the spread four straight Sunday games. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS its past seven home games against the Fever, who are getting double-digit points in this game. Three of the past four meetings have gone OVER and the Fever are averaging 89.0 their past four games. Napheesa Collier is still out with a sparined ankle for the Lynx, who have all but wrapped up the top seed in the playoffs. Take the points with the Fever and the OVER.