Indiana Fever vs Minnesota Lynx Point Spread Picks

We had Portland at a plus number against Indiana on Friday, and it didn't hold. Caitlin Clark logged her fourth career triple-double, and the Fever pulled away for their fifth straight win, the first team in WNBA history to clear 100 points in five consecutive games. Kelsey Mitchell has been just as locked in, running her streak of 20-point games to 13 straight. That's the version of Indiana walking into Target Center today, and it's walking into a serious test. Minnesota owns the best record in the league, has won nine straight of its own, and is 11-4 at home this season. That gap is real, and I'm not pretending otherwise. But my mathematical model keeps landing on live, well-rested, high-scoring underdogs catching a number like this one, and Indiana checks every box. Fresh off Friday's win, the Fever have the firepower to keep pace with anybody, and Aliyah Boston is good to go after a knee scare earlier in the week. Getting this number with a team playing this well is exactly the number I want to be on the plus side of. Indiana is the right side on the spread this afternoon.

Two of the top three offensive teams in the WNBA meet up tonight, with oddsmakers listing the Lynx as a small road favorite. Minnesota is No. 1 in scoring (86.7 ppg), shooting (47%), and 3-point shooting (38.5%). The Lynx are on a 13-6-2 run OVER the total. Indiana is third in scoring (84.9 ppg), field goal shooting (45.6%), and from long range (34.3%). They just clinched a playoff spot after scoring 97 and 94 points in wins over Chicago and Washington. Indiana is on a 6-4 run OVER the total, as well as 5-2 OVER at home. Take Minnesota/Indiana OVER the total.

Indiana is in a quick revenge spot as it tries to end a four-game skid. The Fever lost 95-90 to the Lynx on Friday and it sailed OVER by 20.5 points for Indiana's third OVER in a row. Indiana is 8-2 OVER its past 10 games against teams with winning records and the Fever have covered the spread four straight Sunday games. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS its past seven home games against the Fever, who are getting double-digit points in this game. Three of the past four meetings have gone OVER and the Fever are averaging 89.0 their past four games. Napheesa Collier is still out with a sparined ankle for the Lynx, who have all but wrapped up the top seed in the playoffs. Take the points with the Fever and the OVER.

Minnesota is out for payback after losing the first meeting this season 74-59 on July 1. The Lynx have won 10 of 13, although they are on a two-game skid after losses to New York and Atlanta. Indiana has lost four of six and had to go overtime to defeat lowly Connecticut on Sunday after overcoming a 21-point deficit. The Fever are missing their starting backcourt of Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham due to injuries, in addition to reserve guards Sydney Colson and Aari McDonald. Indiana is only 10-8 straight up at home this season, while the Lynx have won 11 of 17 road contests. Minnesota is aiming for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Take the Lynx on the moneyline.

Caitlin Clark has been out with a groin injury, but Indiana handled it well against Dallas on Friday by shooting 59 percent and hitting six of 14 3-point tries in a 94-86 victory. Kelsey Mitchell led the Fever with 32 points and Aliyah Boston added 21 points for Indiana, which jumped out to a 33-13 lead and held on for the road win. The Fever have shown plenty of depth with Mitchell, Boston and Natasha Howard picking up the slack during Clark's absence. The Fever also are determined to show they can hold their own without Clark even though they hope she returns soon. Indiana has covered four of the past six meetings at Minnesota, but look for an outright statement win. Take the Fever on the moneyline.