College Football's Week 7 introduces new factors into the daily handicapping analysis. With so many teams 3-3 or 2-4, players and coaches have winning seasons and CFB bowl games on their minds. That sense of urgency can add a new level of motivation going into Week 7 now that college football week 6 is behind us..
In one recent season, Middle Tennessee State was 2-4 in Week 7 but won and covered easily in a 44-13 rout of UConn. That keyed the Blue Raiders to win four of their final six and make a bowl game. They then upset Toledo in the bowl with Middle Tennessee cashing at +330 on the moneyline.
Other factors in Week 7 to keep an eye on are players returning from injuries along with teams that just finished a difficult road stretch but now begin playing more home than road games down the stretch. Successful sports handicappers are able to identify extra motivational incentives before a game, while everyone else picks up on them after a win and cover.
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Why Use Free College Football Week 7 Picks
That's an example of why handicapping games is an evolving, fluid process. The more information you acquire, the more chances you have of identifying subtle but important factors that can influence sides, totals, and plus-moneyline plays.
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Betting Value in Free College Football Week 7 Picks
It's not just information to identify wins with sides but with totals. Coaches can make adjustments to improve the defensive side of the ball around Week 7. That means parsing season stats into groups, such as how a defense did in the first half of the season to how they're performed lately.
Many times there can be dramatic shifts. In one recent season, Western Kentucky struggled defensively with a tough schedule allowing 38.4 points over the first five games, but in the final eight they allowed 22.6 points in their final eight regular season contests.
In Week 7, the Western Kentucky/Florida International total went from 75 to 78 but sailed way UNDER in a 34-19 victory. Western Kentucky was 2-4 going into Week 7, but only lost once over the final eight to make a bowl. Oddsmakers are making their sides and totals based on season stats, but those stats can adjust quickly, so it's essential to keep tabs on changes and team improvements prior to making your college football (ATS) picks.
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How To Win With Free College Football Week 7 Picks
Making a profit with college football betting requires reams of information, discipline, an understanding of all the betting angles available, while recognizing the difference between correct betting odds and ones that offer real wagering value.
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Free College Football Week 7 Betting Strategy
500 Teams
Teams sitting at 3-3 heading into Week 7 are at a pivotal point of the season. They will almost always approach this game as if the whole season was on the line. One win means they have a winning campaign and a decent shot at a bowl. A loss and they have a losing record after seven games.
The motivation can be as high as any game all year. One recent season, Central Florida was sitting at 3-3 coming off a terrible 56-21 loss at Cincinnati. They were an underdog in Week 7, but beat Memphis straight up, 24-7, on the way to a winning season. In fact, they beat Florida, 29-17, in a bowl as an underdog again. Highly motivated underdogs can be worth a look on the moneyline, as well.
Divided Stats
Overall stats are a good gauge of how a team is on offense and defense. But by Week 7, it doesn't always tell the whole story. Coaches can insert new players or come up with subtle scheme changes. Or maybe a mid-major team had a difficult September schedule stepping up against great offenses including some from the Power 5 schools skewing their stats.
That Central Florida defense I just mentioned gave up 31, 42, 34, and 56 points in four of its first six contests. But after giving up 56 to Cincinnati, the Golden Knights allowed an average of 18 ponts per game the rest of the season starting in Week 7.
The Over/Under in the bowl game against Florida went down to 55.5 after opening at 56.5. Some sharp players saw that the Central Florida defense was far better than the overall stats and cleaned up in the bowl.
Depth Charts and Injuries
The NCAA doesn't require college football teams to release injury reports. That makes it more challenging for bettors but it's essential to keep tabs on injuries and depth charts. And not just with star running backs and quarterbacks. If a smaller program loses its top linebacker it's unlikely to have a key reserve capable of filling the shoes of a team leader like that.
On the other hand, bigger schools that have excellent recruiting offseasons can go to the depth charts to plug in highly recruited freshman and sophomore offensive line reserves, or not miss a beat in the secondary if they have decent second-stringers that can step in.
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