Hockey picksMay 22, 2021

NHL Playoff Picks Hitting 74%, up +$15,050

Saturday’s NHL Playoff picks tackle my top matchups, coming off another huge 4-1 night where dime bettors cranked in +$4,440 in profit. I preview today’s four games with NHL trends, odds and betting information.

NHL playoff picks saturday vegas minnesota

Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has 83 career NHL Playoff wins, ranked sixth all-time



NHL Playoff Picks, 5 of 7 Winning Days (71%)

The Saturday lineup gives hockey bettor’s exactly what they want, with games running early and often. In the early contest, Tampa Bay takes on Florida as the Panthers look to draw even in this best-of-seven series. I’ve had five winning days out of seven to start the playoffs and will have picks for today’s games ready by 11:30 am ET.

Florida at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Saturday, May 22, 12:30 PM ET
Line: Lightning -140 and 6 UN -140

Florida has had a history of starting slow in the playoffs and the Lightning took the first two games with an electric offense in Game 1, and stellar goaltending by Andrei Vasilevskiy in Game 2. Tampa has never lost a playoff series after leading 2-0, going 6-0 in franchise history. With their backs against the wall, the Panthers showed up ready to play and jumped to a 2-0 lead. Playing like the champs that they are, Tampa responded with five goals in the second period and led 5-4 into the final minutes. Refusing to quit, Florida tied the game on Gustav Forsling’s first-ever Stanley Cup Playoffs goal and went onto win 6-5 in overtime.

– With a total of 6 or more, road teams that have allowed 3-plus goals in three or more consecutive games are 64-24 UNDER (73%) off a game where 9-plus goals were scored.

The opener was played at a frenetic pace and Tampa’s scoring average in day games the past three seasons is 3.6 goals. They are 9-2 in 11 early starts but Florida had an early start against Nashville in March and put up six goals. NHL road teams with a 2-1 series lead are 20-28 (.417) but the moneyline suggests 58.3% likelihood Tampa Bay will emerge victorious.

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Pittsburgh (2-1) at New York Islanders
Saturday, May 22, 3:00 PM ET
Line: Islanders -115 and 5.5 UN -135

Kris Letang scored two minutes into Game 3 and it wasn’t until 11:03 of the second that New York finally broke onto the scoresheet. The Pens notched two more, taking a 3-1 lead into the third and that’s when the fireworks started. When the dust settled the Pens won 5-4 and although the game was tied three separate times, New York never led.

– Islanders coach Barry Trotz has a 83-38 UNDER (69%) when playing for the third time in five days.

Tristan Jarry has shown great composure in his first real chance as the playoff starter. Jarry had one start against the Habs last season, a losing effort where he allowed just one goal. He then lost the opener of this series in overtime but made 37 saves. Now he has back-to-back wins under his belt and a .923 playoff save percentage with 2.35 goals against average. With an offense that’s scoring 3.49 goals per game (GPG), Pittsburgh’s highest average since 2011, those kinds of numbers in net are going to earn you plenty of W’s.

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Montreal (1-0) at Toronto
Saturday, May 22, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Maple Leafs -175 and 5.5 UN -120

The Leafs will be playing this one for their injured captain, John Tavares. The good news is that Tavares was released from hospital on Friday, diagnosed with a concussion. It looked like it could have been much worse after the horrific blow Tavares took from Corey Perry’s knee after Tavares was knocked down by Ben Chiarot. He left on a stretcher and the game’s playoff intensity just continued to build, Montreal eventually winning 2-1 on an unbelievable goal by Paul Byron, scored from his knees.

– Montreal’s road record vs. winning teams in the second half of the past three seasons is 21-9 UNDER (70%).
– Toronto was 17-4 SU (81%) with 6 OVERS, 14 UNDERS and a push this year when seeking revenge. Three of four losses were vs. the Canucks.

Toronto won the North by five points and finished 18 points ahead of Montreal in the standings. The Leafs were 18-7-3 at home and 7-2-1 against the Habs but there was no-one in the organization looking forward to a showdown vs. Carey Price. Out since April 19 with a concussion, Price made 35 stops in his return and his 31 career playoff wins are 31 more than Leafs No. 1 goalie, Jack Campbell. Price will need a repeat performance if Montreal hopes to steal another win, and although Tavares is out, Toronto did get Zach Hyman back from a knee injury that kept him out 11 games. When trailing a series 1-0, Toronto has a 23-21 Game 2 record all-time.

Vegas (2-1) at Minnesota
Saturday, May 22, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Golden Knights -120 and 5.5 UN -120

After taking the first game 1-0 in overtime, Minnesota has been outscored 8-3 falling behind 2-1. The Knights have a 3-1 record in Game 4 of a series when leading and NHL teams are 75% likely to win a series after taking a 2-1 lead. Given Vegas’ 21-5-2 home record this season, the Wild has officially entered ‘must win’ territory. If the Knights win today, their likelihood of taking the series jumps to 94%.

– NHL teams with a win percentage over .600 are 82-35 SU (70%) after a home loss by 3-plus goals. The Wild were 35-16-5 (.625) overall this season.

The top two lines for the Knights are nearly impossible to matchup against on the road. Minnesota has to take advantage of the last line change on home ice and play with more jump in their step for a full 60 minutes or they can pretty much mail this one in. The Wild are 6-3 all-time when hosting the Knights, including a 3-2 record this season, but Vegas has won their past two visits and held the Wild to just two goals in each contest. NHL consensus data shows 60% action on Vegas, which is the lowest of all moneyline favorites today.

In the past 12 seasons, dime bettors have collected +$218,630 with my hockey predictions and my NHL Playoff picks are on fire!

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