Hockey picksJanuary 22, 2021

NHL Picks and Betting Trends

My NHL picks have been kicking butt and taking names this season, with an incredible eight winning nights out of the first nine! I’ll have winning NHL picks throughout the weekend, and here are some betting trends and stats to note as the season takes hold.

The New Standard of Hockey

Everyone knew things would be a little different with the National Hockey League this season. To start, the league realigned the divisions to reduce travel and coincide with border regulations between the United States and Canada.

Sponsorship rules also changed as the league had to get creative to make up for lost revenue by ticket sales. Hey, if checking the standings is now going to inspire us to buy a car or take a loan, and that means we get hockey, I’m all for it. Small sacrifice.

The schedule, which sees a dramatic increase in back-to-backs, home and homes, or a combination of the two, is huge from a handicapping standpoint. My NHL picks often factor recent results into the equation. Now, more often than before, you have to consider how teams will respond to a win/loss, blowout, etc, against the same team a day or two later.

  • To put it in perspective, there were 449 regular season back-to-backs played between 2006-2018. That’s an average of 34.5 per season.

So far in the new 2021 season, there has already by 25 back-to-backs!

My NHL picks are 16-7 (70%), earning dime bettors +$8,510 in returns through nine days. Get my next winner here!

NHL home faves are 23-11 (68%) to start the season, well ahead of their 58% win-rate since 2006


Early-Season NHL Trends

The Vegas Knights (4-0) are in the midst of playing four-straight games against Arizona. With Vegas’ elite balance of scoring, penalty kill and goaltending, they’re a complete nightmare for a Coyotes (1-2-1) team that is notoriously slow out of the gate.

  • Since 2016, the Coyotes have a league-worst .364 win-percentage (16-28) in the first 10 games of the season.

Vegas has experienced an unprecedented level of success since entering the league in 2017. Along their list of accomplishments, would you believe that the Knights have never lost a regular season back-to-back after winning the first half?

  • Vegas is 4-0 (100%) all-time in the second half of a back-to-back after winning the first game.

That’s a limited sample but it’s on the line Friday night against the Yotes. If Vegas wins, they’ll look to make it six in a row on Sunday.

Bigger sample size, the best NHL betting teams off a win against the same opponent are as follows (minimum 10 wins):

1. Montreal Canadiens = 13-3 (81%)

Current win streak is six-straight. Live Saturday night against Vancouver. The Habs are also 16-6 OVER (73%) in early season road games. The current line is Montreal -145 and 6.5 UN -115.

2. Nashville Predators = 15-5 (75%)

Current win streak is five-straight. The Preds are in Dallas for the Stars’ delayed season opener on Friday. These teams meet again Sunday. Note that in 2019, the Stars were 2-8 in their first 10 games.

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3. Boston Bruins = 13-5 (72%)

All four games have been decided by a one-goal margin this year. Boston scored four in the third period to force OT against Philly on Thursday, winning in a shootout. They meet again on Saturday and the current line favors Boston -146.

  • Boston was 10-2 after scoring 5-plus goals in the 2019 season.

4. Minnesota Wild = 10-5 (67%)

Trend to Note = 1 OVER and 6 UNDERS in this spot. The Wild are hosting San Jose on Friday night and again on Sunday. Minnesota has just one win against the Sharks in six tries since 2018 (Friday result pending).

5. Philadelphia Flyers = 12-6 (67%)

Second in league scoring with 19 goals through five games. Also second with a 15.3 shooting percentage. The Flyers are converting 29.6 high-danger chances into goals. Only St. Louis is better.

  • The Flyers’ recent trends after winning the first half of a back-to-back are 8-1 SU and 7-2 OVER.

NHL Picks Up The Pace

The more things change, the more they stay the same. While there are sure to be some quirks in the league’s new format, there will also be value sticking to these tried, tested and true NHL betting trends as the season shifts into second gear.

  • Regular rest cycles of exactly one day have helped home teams produce a profitable season in six of seven seasons from 2013-19.

Hockey players are creatures of habit, and this stat reinforces the theory. Conference home teams on regular rest cycles of exactly one day, three games in a row, are 229-142 (62%). A dime bettor has banked +$45,780 on this profile and Sunday, the Wild, Coyotes and Ducks will be live.

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