The main area of baseball wagering that betting fans attack most is the moneyline. This is simply trying to pick the winner of the game. There's the favorite and the underdog - who do you think is going to be victorious? But oddsmakers post other numbers on MLB action, such as runlines, MLB totals, team totals, and MLB props. The most successful handicappers earn their pay by scanning all the available posted odds. The wagering value might not be with the favorite but with the total or runline. Or there might not be any value at all, which means to pass on the game.
Why Use Free MLB Picks Against the Spread
So how do you gauge whether to wager or pass? The same way you get to Carnegie Hall, son - practice! One can think of identifying a weak betting line by working backward. Before looking at the odds, collect data on the approaching games and study the stats, MLB computer matchups, and situations. After examining the stats, bullpen strengths, home field, and starting pitchers, you then form an educated assessment of what the likely final score will be. Getting baseball information and predictions from respected sources improves your daily handicapping regimen.
Betting Value in Free MLB Picks Against the Spread
Having a list of projected final scores is a huge advantage to identifying wagering value. For example, after careful study, you conclude that the Red Sox at Fenway Park might best the Yankees by a final score of 7-5. The betting odds might have the home team a -150 favorite, +130 on the runline, with a total of 9. An experienced handicapper would pass on betting the favorite as it's too much money to lay in what should be a close game. Picking the Red Sox on the runline (to win by more than one run) might provide some value, as would the MLB underdog. But the total is offering even more value based on your assessment: Betting OVER 9 runs in a game that shapes up as an offensive show in a small, hitter-friendly park.
Wunderdog Free MLB Picks Against the Spread
With baseball games going just about every day over seven months, winning consistently requires putting in intensive study on the matchups and the odds. It's a constant cat-and-mouse game against the oddsmakers played with real money. I've mastered it not through luck but by putting in the work daily over 20 years. I don't wager on every game on the card, but I do the research on all of them. I can go weeks not wagering on a specific team until I find the right opportunity and the choice betting number. I'm backing each selection with my own money as well as providing insight to my customers on the reasons behind the picks.
Free MLB Picks Against the Spread vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Picks Against the Spread Pros:
- Free info from an experienced wagering professional
- No money down, no money lost
- Zeroing in on the best line value
Free MLB Picks Against the Spread Cons:
- No reasons for the selection given
- Too many big favorites
- Parlays should be used sparingly, never as a regular way to wager
Premium MLB Picks Against the Spread Pros:
- Insight into runlines, props, team totals, and when to use parlays
- Saves you hours of time as the betting pro is doing all the work
- Higher winning percentage along with money management mechanics
Premium MLB Picks Against the Spread Cons:
- Not every game has wagering value
- Run from services that scream, "This game is guaranteed to win!"
- Many services aren't documented and refuse to provide past records
How To Win With Free MLB Picks Against the Spread
Winning in sports wagering requires experience and patience while putting the time in. It also requires an understanding of money management principles, such as betting consistently selected amounts on each game. And it all begins with information. Keep up on baseball stats, bullpen depth, and matchups, along with handicapping situational factors such as road travel, injuries, let-down spots, and rivalry showdowns. Eventually, you'll be able to spot underdogs that should be favored and recognize why lines are shifting.
Free MLB Picks Against the Spread Betting Strategy
Baseball doesn't have the kind of home-field advantage that other sports do. Starting pitchers influence the daily MLB betting odds more than home turf. However, road travel is still an important part of MLB handicapping. "Situational handicapping" is about situational factors that can affect a team's performance. If a manager is replaced or a jersey number is retired, that can bring an emotionally charged atmosphere into the park for the players and fans. A team can channel that emotion and play with more intensity than usual. Road travel is a situational factor that constantly applies in baseball handicapping. Athletes on road trips are having their sleeping patterns disrupted, they're practicing and living in unfamiliar places, while dealing with the hassle involved in airline travel. It's not uncommon to see a talented first-place team play sloppy and stumble during a long road trip. That happened to the Phillies one season, winning the first two games of a road trek, then losing the last four by a 21-10 count despite being favored in every game on the trip.
While baseball's home field doesn't carry the kind of advantages other sports do, it does provide value for MLB bettors with home underdogs. Oddsmakers base their betting numbers largely on starting pitchers. So a visiting team with a better starter is often the favorite. However, starting pitchers are overvalued. They're only a portion of the game. Many starters go 5-6 innings, which means the bullpen is going to be throwing 3-4 - or more if it goes extra innings. The relievers are going to be a huge part of the game, yet the starting pitchers are the ones the oddsmakers are basing the opening number on. If the oddsmakers are placing too much emphasis on starters, this opens up potential wagering value on home underdogs. Other factors have to be weighed, such as offensive capabilities, bullpen quality, and situations. Casual bettors prefer favorites while pro handicappers are on the lookout for live underdogs.
Runlines are baseball's version of the point spread. They're listed on the card as -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. It means the favorite has to win by more than one run to collect, such as a 5-3 victory or a 7-1 rout. The underdog has two options to cash: If they pull the upset and win, or if they lose by one run. The strategy with backing the runline favorite would be if a strong offensive team was facing a very weak one. An 8-3 final score would be realistic. Or when an ace pitcher is facing a terrible offensive team you might anticipate a 3-0 or 4-1 final. Backing the underdog on the runline can encompass even more matchups and situations. These would include if a team is a home underdog hosting an opponent on a long road trip, a team with a losing record suddenly playing well, or a rested underdog facing a team that had to play the day before. Another would be a bad offensive team that is loaded with excellent pitching depth. You might project a final score of 2-1 or 3-2, so it wouldn't even matter who wins the game if you're backing the underdog on the runline.
Free MLB Picks Against the Spread Subscription
I'm always on the prowl for baseball odds that vary significantly from my own numbers. I study teams, matchups, ballparks, and situations, and augment it with stats and angles from my personal database to identify the best wagering edges. You can receive my free baseball picks daily to add layers of insight into your sports betting game. You can compare your own selections with mine, take a second look at a game I had and you didn't, or simply read the analysis to keep your handicapping up to date. You can take advantage free of charge to acquire my daily MLB picks through a subscription service. You'll be better prepared when the baseball lines pop up and the betting money comes down.