There's money in baseball underdogs! Betting on baseball is great because games are going on almost every day during a six-month, 162-game season. The best teams in baseball finish around the 100-win mark. Those strong teams are often the favorite for the MLB betting public - many times big favorites - but a 100-win team means that they've still lost 62 games. Upsets happen each day because of a variety of handicapping factors, such as facing a hot pitcher, a blown save, injuries, or a poorly timed error. Even the weather can change the dynamics of a game during the hot summer months, such as a favorite wilting during a heatwave or windy conditions. If the wind is blowing out to center, an expected 3-2 pitcher's duel can turn into a 10-8 slugfest decided by the bullpen. Since starting pitchers determine MLB betting odds, the underdog with a decent bullpen can have all the edges with the starters gone by the fifth inning.
Why Use Free Baseball Underdog Picks
MLB dogs have a plus sign at the wagering window, such as +130 or +155. And with no ties in baseball, you'll either win or lose providing the game goes nine innings. In a four-inning rainout, for instance, you get your money back. The average bettors prefer the favorites with the better pitcher on the mound, but serious professional bettors lean more toward underdogs. That's where the value - and the long-term money - lies in MLB picks.
Betting Value in Free MLB Underdog Picks
With the average betting Joe focused on who the starting pitcher is, pro handicappers examine other facets that are equally important in MLB computer picks. Baseball home field is less of a betting advantage than in other sports but it's still worth looking at. Some teams can trot out five above-average starting pitchers each day so where they play isn't that much of a factor. Other times, even bad teams can play significantly better at home, so they can be worth a look at as a home underdog. In one recent campaign, the Baltimore Orioles had a losing road record but were 45-36 at home. That same season, the Minnesota Twins had a losing overall record but were 46-35 at home and 32-49 away. They could be faded as a road favorite despite a perceived edge on the mound, while worth a look as a home underdog. Line movement can reveal wagering advantages, too. If an MLB underdog moves from +160 to +135, it's likely that a bunch of sharp bettors are on the underdog. That gives you an opportunity to take a second peak at some betting value you might have overlooked.
Wunderdog Free Baseball Underdog Picks
Baseball is a sport loaded with individual and team stats to study. I keep tabs on all the stats from a personal database along with a sharp eye honed over 20+ years in the business. In addition, I watch line movement while compiling my own daily list of MLB betting lines that are off. I unleash plenty of daily baseball underdogs that should be favored or have a reasonable chance to pull the upset. All my selections come with detailed reasons why to help you build your handicapping expertise alongside your bankroll.
Free Baseball Underdog Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Underdog Picks Pros:
- Time saver with MLB games going daily over a 162-game campaign
- Insight gained adds to your sports handicapping development
- No cost to your wallet or betting bankroll
Free MLB Underdog Picks Cons:
- Unhelpful if the reasons why are unclear or not offered at all
- Don't fall in love with parlays unless the handicapping pro recommends it
- Too many baseball favorites won't build the bankroll
Premium MLB Underdog Picks Pros:
- Hitting big underdogs pays much more than even-money
- Plenty of key baseball game-day info can be found that isn't widely distributed
- Proper money management is essential for winning long-term
Premium MLB Underdog Picks Cons:
- Not all websites offering free plays are from established MLB experts or documented winners
- The extra cost you pay begins to eat into your wagering bankroll
- Never triple what you normally bet and be wary of handicapper hype
How To Win With Free Baseball Underdog Picks
Winning consistently at sports betting is not easy but it can be done. It takes a combination of studying the teams and matchups, plus patience, discipline, and confidence, while understanding line movement and weighing line value. The right information is necessary to judge when an underdog is in a prime position to pull an upset on the baseball diamond. I have loads of daily information, along with free selections, to prove that MLB underdog picks are one of the best ways to increase your betting bankroll.
Free Baseball Underdog Picks Betting Strategy
Since starting pitchers determine baseball betting odds, the underdog with a decent bullpen can have all the edges with starters often departing by the fifth inning. The game has changed over the last three decades. In the old days, baseball managers would use a four-man rotation and ride those starters 8-9 innings. Relievers were mop-up guys who couldn't start. Now, managers keep close track of pitch counts to save wear and tear on arms, so a starter often goes 5 or 6 innings before hitting the 90-100 pitch mark. And general managers construct teams with this in mind, stockpiling quality middle relievers along with lefty/righty specialists. More and more teams have quality bullpens. Some of those pens are actually better than the starters, so coming back from a 4-2 deficit in the fifth inning is very manageable. An underdog with a deep or reliable pen is a big plus for bettors.
MLB Home Dogs
Baseball parks are different in size and shape. Teams get comfortable knowing their home park playing 82 games but it can be challenging heading out on the road. Some teams are built for power in their smaller home parks, but the offense struggles badly in bigger parks on the road if they can't manufacture runs. The St. Louis Cardinals took home a division title one season with a strong 53-28 record at home but had a losing mark (40-41) on the road. They had a winning record during a nine-game homestand, but as soon as they went on the road they lost two out of three at Cincinnati losing as favorites of -145 and -160. The Reds were very live home dogs scoring 21 runs in the three games. Playing in Colorado has been a challenge for visiting teams for decades in the thin mountain air. That same season, the Rockies were an abysmal 27-54 on the road but 41-40 at home. They opened the season as home underdogs of +188, +138, and + 185 against the Dodgers but won two of the three scoring 17 runs.
Baseball defense isn't just pitching. Defense in the field is a subtle but significant factor. Shortstops and second basemen that have above-average range help pitchers a lot by stabbing potential singles and turning double plays. That not only gets outs but keeps a pitcher's throwing count low. And speedy outfielders who can cover ground can run down fly balls for outs that will be singles, doubles, and even triples for teams with a lack of outfield speed. Defense is significant when a team heads out on the road as different parks can have expansive outfields. In one recent season, the Seattle Mariners were a surprise winning 90 games. They had a winning record both home and away. They went 34-43 as an underdog and were an aggregate +$753 on the road. Seattle was the third-best road money-making team in all of baseball and, not coincidentally, had a fine defense finishing fifth in the majors in fielding percentage, plus eighth in pitching ERA. The team that was No. 1 in making money on the road was the Houston at +$1271 - and the Astros were seventh in fielding percentage and second in pitching ERA.
Free Baseball Underdog Picks Subscription
Identifying live baseball underdogs is about lining up the right information and judging whether the odds are inaccurate or off. I release daily baseball picks on a subscription service direct to you at no cost. You'll gain valuable insight into how professional bettors assess teams, pitchers, and betting lines. You can compare your picks with mine and see what games we agree on and why. It provides you an opportunity to take a second look at a game we don't agree on. All of which will add layers to your understanding of the handicapping field. And if you find yourself liking too many favorites, you'd better start learning how to identify live baseball underdogs. Because dogs are man's - and a bettor's - best friend!