Can't pick a baseball underdog to save your life? And the team you think will win is way too big of a favorite for the MLB public consensus. What to do? Sportsbooks solved that dilemma decades ago putting up a variety of ways to wager. Baseball totals, or Over/Under picks, are the combined number of runs scored in a game. It will be visible next to the side, such as "Yankees -220, Orioles +190, 9 (Over -120)". The "9" signifies the total number of runs the oddsmaker has projected, anticipating around a 6-3 final score. Bettors can wager Over or Under the "9" runs. If you wager on the Over and it ends up as a 10-6 home run derby, you cashed easily on your MLB computer picks (probably by the sixth inning). You can't cash your ticket in the sixth inning, but betting totals have a nice advantage over sides in that you can have a winning ticket in your hand long before the game has even ended.
Why Use Free MLB Over/Under Picks
Betting on MLB totals has other advantages. Over/Unders are close to even money so you're never laying too much juice. Handicapping totals is done by examining starting pitcher's home/road splits, bullpen strength, situational factors, and ballpark configurations. In one recent campaign, the Colorado Rockies led the league with 456 runs scored in 81 home games but were dead last in runs scored on the road with 242. That's quite a dropoff in production that handicappers need to assess when trying to predict and wager on Over/Unders and provide MLB picks. Acquiring a slew of information to study before you put your money down is essential.
Betting Value in Free Baseball Over/Under Picks
Situations change quickly during the course of a 162-game baseball season. A team on a 10-game homestand can end a losing streak and score a ton of runs. However, when they then head out on the road, the average bettor may think see a red-hot offensive team, but the offense may suddenly go cold on the road. It wasn't just Colorado that had a dip in production that season away from home. The Red Sox were in the Top 10 in runs scored at home, but 18th on the road. Boston had a winning home record but was 35-46 away from Fenway Park. During one six-game road trip, four of Boston's games went UNDER the total including two 1-0 games with totals of 7 and 8.5. In addition, experienced sharp bettors look for betting value in totals which can elicit considerable MLB line movement. If a total shifts from "8.5 Under (-110)" to 8.5 Under (-135), that's a sign that big money has come in on the Under. It's important to have insight into where the wise guy money is moving to help narrow down the best betting value on the card.
Wunderdog Free MLB Over/Under Picks
Baseball totals are overlooked by the majority of bettors but not by the pros as there is often better value than sides. My MLB total picks can be based on a few key pieces of data or multiple facets of handicapping dynamics. I also anticipate line movement by making my own totals, providing me with a heads-up before the real numbers shift. You can get the early jump by accessing my baseball Over/Under releases. And at free of charge, there's no risk, only valuable and helpful insight.
Free Baseball Over/Under Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Over/Under Picks Pros:
- Totals are overlooked by many bettors but not by serious ones
- With pitchers changing daily, helps keep you informed on minute data and betting angles
Free MLB Over/Under Picks Cons:
- Too many angles and not enough detailed reasoning
- Betting websites that hide won/lost/push records
- Parlaying sides can have value but don't MLB parlay totals unless advised by the betting professional
Premium MLB Over/Under Picks Pros:
- There's often more value in baseball totals than favorites or dogs
- Building more layers of insight into your handicapping game
- The top picks from an experienced tout
Premium MLB Picks Cons:
- Plays short on analysis (or none) is a sign no effort was put in
- The extra price cuts into your daily wagering bankroll
- Be cautious of hype such as "locks" and "guaranteed 3-team parlay"
How To Win Free Baseball Over/Under Picks
Baseball totals can provide some of the best MLB betting edges on the card. Winning on MLB totals is multi-layered, such as knowing what stats are most meaningful, which bullpens are rested and reliable, and how teams match up with different ballpark sizes and configurations. It's essential to collect and assess a lot of information and then gauge what the final score might be in relation to the posted totals. By taking advantage of daily picks and info released by a documented expert you'll eventually be able to see the odds the way professional bettors do.
Free Baseball Over/Under Picks Betting Strategy
Situations can trump stats on the baseball diamond. The total might be 9 with the favorite expected to get close to its average of around 5 runs. However, if that team is nearing the end of a nine-game road trip, a handicapper has to factor in road stats along with an offense that might be a bit worn down from all the travel. The Yankees went on their first road trip in one recent season and scored just 15 runs in six games through Baltimore and Detroit. The April weather was cool and the Bronx Bombers were anything but getting shut out twice and losing 2-1 while going 5-1 UNDER the total. Starting pitchers can also perform far more comfortably at home than on the road. The Cardinals won a division title with a starting pitcher who had a 2.38 ERA at home but 4.10 on the road. And one of his teammates was even more extreme with a 2.84 ERA at home, but 5.78 on the road. With baseball totals put up based on the overall team numbers, be sure and dig deeper by weighing splits and situations.
Walk This Way
Some starters and relievers may have good earned run averages, but a key statistic to look at is walks. When a pitcher allows too many free passes, it brings about several negative things. One is pitch count. A pitcher who walks a lot of batters is likely trying to nibble around the strike zone trying to avoid giving up hits on fat pitches in the middle of the plate. The other is walks, as too many 3-2 counts can mean too many bases on balls. That will mean he won't be around long, running up 100 pitches in 5 innings, for instance. And more free passes can mean more chances for the opponent to have a big inning, boosting a total OVER quickly. In addition, some offenses are patient at the plate drawing walks with a high team on-base percentages. That's part of their philosophy as a team. When pitchers who nibble with a propensity of walking too many batters face a team that's patient at the plate, it can mean a high-scoring affair, especially in small, hitter-friendly parks.
Some teams have half of their lineup with lefty hitters. Those teams can excel against righty starters but struggle versus southpaws. Other times, managers will play the lefty/righty game by stacking their lineup with righty batters against a lefty pitcher and vice versa. The Padres had a right-handed pitcher who was tough on righties holding them to a .211 batting average for the season. But lefties hit .257 with a .320 on-base percentage. Both his playoff starts sailed OVER the total in 5-3 and 10-6 losses to teams that each had 4 lefties in the lineup. Most teams have a lefty/righty balance in the bullpen, but that doesn't mean those relievers are very good. Dig deep into the stats to see how reliable they are. Analyzing any potential lefty/righty edges or weaknesses gives a handicapper a better perspective on how the entire 9 innings might unfold as opposed to focusing just on the starters.
Free Baseball Over/Under Picks Subscription
I'm in touch with a multitude of factors on the baseball diamond and at the betting window in the search of betting advantages with totals. From on-base percentage and lefty/righty dynamics to road trips and ballpark configurations, my computer database and handicapping cover it all. My selections come with in-depth analysis along with all the essentials of proper betting money management advice. You can sign up to receive my free baseball totals on a regular subscription service. Daily MLB picks and handicapping insight from a documented professional bettor at no risk or cost. We'll work together to increase your baseball handicapping knowledge - and your betting bankroll.