The Midsummer Classic lands in Philadelphia this year, and the whole show runs through Citizens Bank Park. The Home Run Derby goes Monday, July 13 at 8 p.m. ET on Netflix, and the All-Star Game follows Tuesday, July 14 at 8 p.m. ET on FOX. Two nights in one small ballpark, with a betting board that has a few soft spots if you know where to look.

I’m not handing you an official play here. This is a read on where the numbers look beatable and why, so you can size up the markets before first pitch. Odds move fast on exhibition events, so treat every price below as a snapshot and confirm the current line before you make your MLB picks. 

📈 Want to see how the live MLB odds move throughout the week? My MLB odds & lines page lets you track line movement in real time before first pitch.

The rule change that matters most for bettors

The Derby scrapped the clock. This year, every hitter gets a set number of swings instead of timed rounds: 20 swings in Round 1, 15 in Round 2, 15 in the final. Every cut counts against that total, and there is no bonus period. The one wrinkle that keeps things alive: if a player homers on his final swing of a round, he keeps hitting until he misses.

That single change reshapes how you should think about the props. Under the clock, stamina and pace mattered, and a gasping hitter could still spray a dozen out in the final seconds. On a swing cap, efficiency is everything, and the raw home-run totals should come down. The books have priced a timed Derby for a decade. They have almost no history of pricing this one. When a market is working off a thin sample, the number is easier to beat, which is the whole reason to pay attention to the Derby prop board before the first swing.

The park tilts the whole field left

Citizens Bank Park played to a home-run factor of 110 this season, meaning about 10 percent more homers than a league-average yard. Split it by handedness, and the story gets sharper: the park factor is 115 for left-handed hitters and 104 for righties. That is a real gap over one night of pull-side swings.

Now look at who is in the field. Five of the eight hitters bat left-handed: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Munetaka Murakami, Jac Caglianone, and Ben Rice. The three righties, Junior Caminero, Jordan Walker, and Willson Contreras, are swinging into the smaller of the two park boosts. Contreras has pulled 19 of his 20 homers to left field this year, so a right-handed pull hitter in this yard is fighting the wall placement rather than using it.

The righties can still win. But the same ceiling costs you a shorter price on a lefty and a longer one on a righty, and the park is quietly paying the lefties extra. That is the kind of edge that hides within a prop rather than the outright one, so it rewards a close look at where the value is in these markets.

Schwarber is the favorite, and the price knows it

Schwarber leads the majors with 32 home runs; he bats left-handed, and he is doing this in his home park in front of a crowd that wants it badly. Sportsbooks opened him around +310 to win the whole thing, the shortest number on the board. 

Everything about that price is defensible. It is also the price the public loves to shorten. Hometown favorite plus league home-run leader is the exact profile that draws money and squeezes the return. Recent history is a caution, too: before Cal Raleigh won as the chalk in 2025, the betting favorite had not won the Derby since 2018.

If you want the same power ceiling at a longer price, the value lives one row down among the other lefties who get the full park boost. Murakami set a rookie record with 20 homers before June and swings from the left side. Rice has 29 on the year and pulls the ball in the air as well as anyone here. Caglianone has the loudest raw power in the field, as measured by exit velocity, even with the lowest home-run count. None of them carries Schwarber’s price, and all of them carry his upside on a given round. This is the classic spot to look past the chalk and price the underdog’s hidden value. 

The All-Star Game UNDER fights the ballpark

The under is the traditional All-Star Game bet, and the logic is sound. Managers cycle their best arms through an inning apiece, and hitters never see the same pitcher twice or get a second look to adjust. Elite velocity in one-inning bursts is a recipe for a quiet scoreboard.

The catch this year is the venue. The total opened around 7.5, and the same park that hosts the Derby does not switch off for the game. Citizens Bank Park turns routine fly balls into souvenirs, and a lineup this loaded only needs two swings to blow past a low number. That tension is the entire bet: the format pushes runs down, the ballpark pushes them up. Whichever force you think wins is your side, and it is worth watching how the total moves off 7.5 as pitching rotations are confirmed.

The moneyline and the MVP market

The National League opened as a slight favorite, around -125, with the total at 7.5. As of Tuesday morning, the NL is -130, and the total has climbed to 8 OVER (-115). The case is straightforward: the game is in Philadelphia, the Phillies have six players on the roster, and the NL top end runs through Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Harper, and Schwarber. The American League still won 28 of the last 36 of these, so it’s a mild lean, and a near-pick’em price reflects that. 

For the award, Ohtani was the clear MVP favorite, but he will miss the game due to ongoing irritation in his right knee. One number to keep in mind: the MVP has come from the winning side in 11 straight non-tie years. That correlation is the reason the moneyline and the MVP market are worth reading together rather than in isolation. 

One roster note that matters for props: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was voted an American League starter but is not playing, and Aaron Judge is out with an injury. 

How I’d approach this year's All-Star Game

Across both nights, the sharper looks are on the margins rather than the headline outrights. The Derby props are the softest market on the board because of the format change, and the park’s lefty lean is doing quiet work under those numbers. In the game, the UNDER versus the ballpark is the honest tension, and the NL moneyline sits close enough to pick’em that the MVP angle is the more interesting read. 

If you play the game as a package, the same-game-parlay markets are built for this: an NL side paired with a hometown bat to go deep correlates cleanly in a park this small. Just know the tiebreaker wrinkle before you build it, since the 2025 game went to a swing-off after a tie.

I’ve documented every MLB pick I’ve made for more than 25 years, and it is all out in the open. If you want my daily card for the second half, you can see my latest MLB picks here.

Odds cited are a snapshot as of Monday, July 13, 2026, and are subject to change quickly in exhibition markets. Confirm the current number at your book before placing any wager.