Baseball betting doesn't use point spreads. It's all moneyline, which means simply picking the winner of the game. You a little lay juice, or vigorish, on the favorite, such as $150 to win $100 on a -150 favorite, while if you back the underdog it might be $100 to win $130 on a +130 dog. The favorite would likely have the better starting pitcher as most baseball picks and odds center around who the two starters are. But starting pitchers are only a small part of determining who will win, especially with around 10 percent on average of regular season games going extra innings.
Why Use Free Baseball Moneyline Picks
To profit in any kind of sports wagering you need a plan. A systematic betting plan begins with acquiring information on each team, such as stats, injuries, and situations (road trips, revenge, a manager giving players some extra rest), then gauging what the likely final score should be. You then compare you're assessment to the actual betting odds and the MLB betting public to decide if it's a reasonable number or if there's more variance than you expected. Utilizing a service that provides information such as free daily MLB moneyline selections is one piece of the puzzle to keep you up to date on the constantly changing baseball dynamics.
Betting Value in Free MLB Moneyline Picks
If you're a regular player bettor placing MLB computer picks, backing too many baseball moneyline favorites won't cut it financially over the course of a 162-game season. Dogs and totals have the best value with small moneyline favorites (also known as "chalk") also in the mix. If you've identified a favorite of -130 that you believe has a multitude of edges and should be closer to -160, then you've found value. And it's likely that the -130 price won't be around long, probably closer to -150 by the time the first pitch is thrown. The same concept applies to totals if you've made the total 9 and it comes 7.5 or 8. In addition, baseball home underdogs can offer much value as even some of the worst teams in the league can often squeeze out more wins and upsets at home.
Wunderdog Free Baseball Moneyline Picks
The long baseball summer may be a relaxing, vacation-filled time for some but not for the Wunderdog. I'm constantly studying matchups, gathering data, watching line movement, and assessing odds to try and find the top daily MLB underdogs, totals, and moneylines. Turning a consistent profit in sports wagering isn't about luck. It's about putting the time in and knowing what to look for. I've been successful at it for over two decades and can help you learn the proper steps to hone your handicapping prowess.
Free Baseball Moneyline Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Moneyline Picks Pros:
- No risk or cost
- Paring down the best selections on the MLB card
- Expanding your handicapping insight with the help of an established, documented, winning expert
Free MLB Moneyline Picks Cons:
- Too many favorites
- No rationale behind the picks
- Don't overreact to line movement or over-examine tough losses
Premium MLB Picks Pros:
- The pros bet with their heads and not their hearts
- Increases your critical thinking on teams, games, and wagering strategies
- Baseball premium picks should be accompanied by a well-thought-out analysis
Premium MLB Picks Cons:
- Overreliance on MLB betting trends
- More of your cash and risk is on the line placing bets and purchasing expert MLB picks
- The intricacies of wagering combined with pressure can detract from the fun of sports
How To Win With Free Baseball Moneyline Picks
Be thoroughly prepared when approaching the betting counter. You don't look at a game or the starting pitchers and make a quick judgment on who might win. Careful thought and hours of preparation are necessary to have a chance. The oddsmakers aren't in business to give money away. They do their homework to try and prevent you from winning too much and you need to put the effort in to beat them at their game. Betting patience and knowledge help instill confidence in the most successful sports handicappers. Baseball moneylines are one of several ways to win - provided you approach it the correct way.
Free Baseball Moneyline Picks Betting Strategy
The law of averages says a coin flip is 50-50. Sure, but that technique doesn't apply to gambling games such as roulette or sports betting. If you ever walk by a Vegas roulette table, check out the board that shows the last 15 numbers that have come up. You'll be amazed at how many repeat numbers there are despite the fact that there are 37 options. In baseball, bad teams can get hot while even great teams will hit slumps. The same is true for pitchers. The team of a recent Cy Young winner had stretches of 2-4 and 7-8 when he took the mound. As a general rule, lean toward backing baseball streaks than trying to anticipate when they might end. In addition, streaks that apply to betting trends are far better when there are other factors attached. For instance, a team may be 8-2 with a starting pitcher with an ERA over 4.00 who gives up a lot of hits. That may seem odd, but if the pitcher has excellent control and rarely walks anyone, it makes more sense. That pitcher doesn't allow free passes which lessen the damage with the hits given up and he probably goes deeper into games than other pitchers with below-average ERAs. Hence, he's better than the ERA may imply and is very good at getting team wins even as a moneyline underdog.
Baseball teams have subtle edges at home such as short trips to the ballpark from their homes as well as knowing the configurations of the park where the ball carries or defensively where to position themselves. Teams are more comfortable as they play 81 games in their home stadium. This can be reflected in wins and losses. The Minnesota Twins had a season where they were a bad road team (32-49) but very good at home (46-35). They host the Yankees and were underdogs in the first two games of +15- and +160. The Twins split, losing the opener 10-4 but winning the second night 8-1. That same week they hosted Tampa Bay for three games and won the second game as a +130 underdog, 6-5. Their starting pitcher only went 4 innings with five relievers pitching more innings, showcasing the value of bullpen depth when handicapping games rather than focusing on the starter.
Parlays should be used sparingly. Generally, stick to two-team MLB moneyline parlays if you want to attempt one. If you like two favorites but the value isn't as pronounced as you had hoped, consider parlaying them. Both teams have to win to collect on a parlay, which is why they shouldn't represent the bulk of your betting. But two -150 favorites wagered individually means you would lay $150 on each to try and go 2-0 to win $200. But by parlaying the two, you could lay $100 with a return of $177.78. The return is still very good with the parlay and the loss/risk is far less if things don't break your way. Losses will happen, so every bettor needs to be prepared beforehand psychologically and financially.
Free Baseball Moneyline Picks Subscription
I know the ins and outs of baseball betting, what the numbers should be, what information has merit, and what info to discard. I have an extensive database stretching back 20+ years along with the expertise on what it takes to win consistently over the long season. Best of all, you can have free access to my daily insight by signing up for MLB moneyline picks on a subscription service. It will help you improve your sports handicapping skills and identify more winners each night in a competitive - and profitable - field.