Casual bettors place relatively small wagers on games when they feel like it. It could be two games tonight, a three-team parlay on Sunday, and then no MLB picks for a few days while something else occupies their time. Expert bettors are a much smaller group who wager regularly, often with multiple bets going daily. While casual bettors do it for fun, expert bettors are in it to grind out a profit over the long haul. Serious sports wagering is similar to the stock market. It's a daily process of reading up on industry news, comparing expectations with the real numbers, then backing a stock - or sports team - with real money based on an anticipated gain. There are daily winners and losers when it comes to MLB computer picks, but the expert is armed with knowledge and a bankroll that will grow over time.
Why Use Free Baseball Expert Picks
Casual bettors in the betting public don't spend much time, if any at all, analyzing baseball games. They often look at the starting pitchers and make a quick judgment or simply back their favorite team. Expert bettors put hours of time in each day breaking down home/road stats, recent play, factoring in road treks, and dozens of other handicapping angles. In addition, winning money betting baseball is not just about picking the favorite or the underdog. There are MLB total picks that may have better value or proposition bets, run lines, reverse run lines, and team totals. Oddsmakers put many different numbers up on games. The expert bettor only plays the best wagering options. Getting expert picks breaking down the day's matchups and selections is an excellent way to expand your critical thinking and your handicapping prowess.
Betting Value in Free MLB Expert Picks
Don't think about betting on the majority of the plays on the board or your favorite teams. Instead, narrow your choices. Totals are an overlooked aspect of baseball betting. If two average pitchers are throwing in a hitter's ballpark like Fenway Park, they're probably going to be allowing more hits and baserunners than usual. It could be a prime opportunity to look at a high-scoring game - especially if the relief pitching is mediocre or below average. Examine how those pitchers have faired in the past in certain parks, too. Larger parks like in Seattle, Oakland, and Dodger Stadium are called "pitcher friendly" for a reason. Pitchers with excellent control (walking few batters) can have an advantage in big parks regardless of their overall earned run average. Those pitchers can be undervalued by oddsmakers in pitcher-friendly parks. Conversely, a starting pitcher that has historically struggled in a smaller park can be overvalued as he probably will only be going 5 innings or so. That means the bullpen will be pitching half the game, so far less attention should be paid to the starter.
Wunderdog Free Baseball Expert Picks
I've been watching and winning at baseball for over two decades. I not only study all the stats and up-to-date information but have a math background that I apply to calculate my number against the oddsmakers. In addition, my detailed database gives me an edge even before I begin handicapping each day. It's a case of gauging the odds alongside incorporating MLB situational handicapping factors such as let-down spots, emotional situations, overvalued starters, and road treks. It takes many years of patient study and betting discipline, but mastering the world of baseball betting can be done. Best of all, I'll share this insight with you - for free.
Baseball Expert Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free MLB Expert Picks Pros:
- Insight into who is moving the odds and why
- No money to get means more for your betting bankroll
- Zeroes in on the best numbers, such as totals, props, or run-lines
Free MLB Expert Picks Cons:
- Too many wagering trends with no matchup breakdown
- Too many parlays means too few winners
- Must have a way to see past picks to gauge the track record of any expert
MLB Expert Picks Pros:
- The pro is doing the all heavy lifting
- A mixture of parlays with clear reasoning why
- Game day data and matchups explained on the top picks
MLB Expert Picks Cons:
- Line movement can eat into wagering value
- Excess stressful tempers the fun of sports
- Overwhelming texts, phone calls, and offers from irritating salesmen
How To Win With Baseball Expert Picks
Winning at the sports betting window isn't easy but it's a process that can be mastered. It requires patience, the right data, an experienced eye for odds, and betting discipline. Winning over the long haul requires an understanding of money management. This is betting similar amounts on all of your picks, such as 3%, 4%, or 5% of your total bankroll. Stepping up to 30% because you love one big play is not smart or disciplined wagering. When you put the effort in, you can beat the oddsmakers on a regular basis. Adding baseball expert picks is one of several ways to improve your handicapping game - and your betting bankroll.
Free MLB Expert Picks Betting Strategy
The overall stats of a team or individual players aren't enough to examine from a successful handicapping perspective. Breaking down the numbers home and away can reveal many important differences. For example, in one recent season, the Chicago White Sox had a terrific home record (53-28) but had a losing road mark. A closer look at the numbers shows they were sixth in runs scored at home with 110 homers and a .347 on-base percentage. But on the road, they were 10th in runs scored with 80 home runs and a .326 on-base percentage. During one five-game homestand, they went 4-1 scoring 40 runs, then went 2-4 on a six-game road trek scoring just 20 runs. They lost two games as a favorite on the trip while going 4-1-1 Under the total. It applies to individual players, too. An ace pitcher had a 9-4 record at home with a 1.64 ERA but was 5-5 on the road with a 3.10 ERA. Over two seasons, his team went 17-16 in his 33 road starts. Aces are often big favorites, even on the road, so finding shifts in home/road splits can help a handicapper identify when to back a team or pitcher and when to fade them.
Baseball is unique in that the stadiums all have different dimensions. Some parks are friendly for lefty hitters, some are outdoors in a humid climate, while others have large outfields that are a pitcher's paradise. Small, home run or hitter-friendly parks are in Arlington, Texas, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Wrigley Field in Chicago, and Fenway Park in Boston. Home runs often fly out in Arlington, Texas, while lefty hitters excel using Fenway Park's large left-field Green Monster. A visiting lineup with 4-5 good lefty hitters can feel right at home in Fenway, then head to Baltimore's Camden Yards and find things very different with 373 feet to right centerfield. Some of the parks with spacious outfields can be great for pitchers like Washington, Oakland, Seattle, and Dodger Stadium. In one recent season, the Dodgers went on a 10-game road trip through mostly hitter-friendly parks. They allowed 54 runs and lost eight times as a favorite, in addition to going 7-3 Over the total. Then they returned to Dodger Stadium for a nine-game homestand and allowed 20 runs losing just once while going 5-3-1 Under the total.
Reverse Run Line
Betting the side on a baseball game means you're backing the moneyline favorite or underdog to win the game. The reverse run-line is a little different, as are the odds. If you back the favorite on the reverse run-line it means that the favorite has to win by more than one run. A minus-200 moneyline favorite might be just minus-130 on the reverse run-line. So you lay $130 and hope they win by more than one run, such as 7-1 or 4-2. A 4-3 victory would mean you lose on the reverse run-line. Backing the MLB underdog on the reverse run-line offers a little more wagering flexibility. If the underdog wins the game, you win the reverse run-line bet. If the dog loses the game by one run, you still win on the reverse run-line. It's a good betting strategy if the underdog has a strong starter or excellent bullpen, which is often the case in playoff games. They're capable of keeping the game close or winning with such strong pitching depth, but even a 4-3 loss would cash on the reverse run line.
Free MLB Expert Picks Subscription
Accessing expert insight from beat writers, MLB insiders, and free betting picks are all ways to improve your knowledge to judge which team has the edges on the betting card. It's not about luck, but about putting in the time and understanding the oddsmaker numbers. Matchups and situations change the dynamics of a game each night. My free MLB expert selections are available on a subscription service delivered directly to you daily at no cost. You can compare your top picks against mine, or simply read the insight to better grasp the games and the Vegas odds. Because beating the sports books can be done on a consistent basis. Get on board if you want to increase your handicapping expertise - along with your winning percentage!