October is the heart of the NCAA college football campaign. Conference play is in full swing, surprising teams enter the Top 25, and the 10-20 remaining undefeated squads start to get knocked off. It's a double-edged sword for teams to start 4-0.
It's great to be unbeaten, but the deeper into the season you go, it fires up every opponent to drop you like falling targets at a shooting gallery. It's a great month for sports betting, too, as season stats have accumulated enough to accurately reflect a team's capabilities and weak spots.
Bettors can bring everything to the table in Week 5 by examining stats, situations, CFB computer matchups, and experience to find the best odds.
Use my college football consensus picks each week to see where the public is betting.
Why Use Week 5 College Football Picks
Now that we are done with college football week 4, most college football coaches have settled on their best players for the key starting skill positions. Teams that are struggling in some areas will still be making subtle shifts either in personnel or scheme. These subtleties can be significant, which is why it's essential to gather as much information on teams when examining the odds.
It's also why getting Week 5 college football picks can help build your knowledge arsenal. If a college football coach inserts two freshmen on the defensive line to try and shore up a leaky run defense, an astute handicapper needs to take notice.
Or if a productive linebacker has been rehabbing in September and finally makes his debut in October, that can upgrade a defense. It's a race between the bettor and the oddsmaker to harness the continual flow of information to accurately assess what each side and total should be.
Betting Value in Week 5 College Football Picks
Teams that were not expected to be very good and surprised in September can begin to get national attention after impressive Week 5 performances. In one recent season, Notre Dame began the year unranked but managed to go 4-0 in September squeezing out a pair of close wins over Purdue (20-17) and Michigan (13-6).
They were still under the radar, but exploded in Week 5 with a big win and cover over Miami, 41-3. They ended up 12-1 playing Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game.
A successful handicapper can assess whether a team is for real or just a pretender before the national media and general public. And betting lines are crafted partly on what the public thinks about teams.
Wunderdog Week 5 College Football Picks
I've been successful at locating soft lines on pretenders and under-the-radar teams for over two decades. Winning is in the details, being able to extract the essential information to find those weak numbers.
I can be on sides or totals that don't even move during the week because I've done the homework, have the inside expertise, and see things most don't. You can access my comprehensive analysis and sound reasons that will aid you in identifying edges at the betting window.
Free Week 5 College Football Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free Week 5 College Football Picks Pros:
- Expands your knowledge on wagering angles and the public/sharp line movement differentials
- No cost means more $$$ for your betting bankroll
- Helps identify college football pretenders and contenders before most people notice
Free Week 5 College Football Pick Cons:
- No reasons given for the pick
- October betting services can flood you with hyped plays
- Line movement can confuse novice bettors disrupting confidence, and confidence is essential for successful sports betting
Premium Week 5 Pick Pros:
- The best handicappers will attack bad lines in multiple ways (props, totals, CFB moneylines, first-half bets)
- Saves you the time as the expert is locating the essential details
- Top picks should be accompanied by the right money management strategy
Premium Week 5 Pick Cons:
- Pushy salesmen can inundate inexperienced bettors with endless phone calls
- Can stress you out watching games that used to be for fun
- The money you pay for the premium selections dilutes your betting bankroll faster, especially if the winning percentage is too low
How To Win With Free Week 5 College Football Picks
One challenge to successful wagering is having the same approach through patience and betting discipline while adjusting to the NCAA college football season changes. Teams that may have played great in September can suddenly flop both straight up and against the spread in October.
There are always reasons for this, so it's essential to get out in front by anticipating these shifts before they happen. Getting the right information and advice from a documented wagering expert helps. I have a two-plus decade track record of riding the ups and downs to win consistently against the Vegas odds.
I also incorporate money management, a controlled amount bet on each game based on mathematical calculations. It's not about hoping a team will cover. It's about lining multiple things up to put the odds - and the money - in your favor.
Free Week 5 College Football Picks Betting Strategy
Surprise Teams
Unexpected 4-0 teams entering Week 5 can catch the public's eye by jumping into the Top 25...or they can still remain under the radar both straight up and with the betting odds. The Auburn Tigers were off a 5-5-1 campaign one season, had brought in a new coach and were unranked.
They ended up 11-0 beating No. 4 Florida and No. 11 Alabama. The first season the Miami Hurricanes won a national championship, they entered Week 5 still unranked. Examine the betting lines for the first four weeks. If they're 2-2 or 1-3 ATS, then they haven't surprised the oddsmakers.
But if they're 4-0 ATS and still getting little respect (and getting little money) then you've found an undervalued team that's better than many expected.
Subtle Changes
Good coaching staffs will make adjustments all season to fix weak spots. A team that struggled against the run in September can get much if the coaching staff tries new linebackers or freshmen run stuffers. This is why looking at the entire season's stats can be tricky for handicappers.
Examine the entire season, but also break it down over the last two or three games. You may find the adjustments have made a positive difference and a prior weakness may now be a strength. That's even true with special teams. If a 2-2 team lost two games because their field goal kicker botched a few makeable kicks, see if the coaches are trying someone different.
Adding offensive linemen is another key overlooked area. If a team is struggling in pass blocking or in opening up holes for the running backs, good coaching staffs will try new personnel. Don't ignore the overall stats, but keep up on potential changes.
Lost Seasons
There are many 0-4 teams that begin to realize the season is already lost. This can change the performance of a team, from one that played hard in September to one that goes through the motions if they realize it's going to be a losing campaign, especially when they're facing very talented teams and are supposed to lose.
Penn State was expected to have a winning season in 2020 but started 0-4 for just the second time in school history. In Week 5, they got flattened by Iowa, 41-21, at home!
Free Week 5 College Football Picks Subscription
My college football releases have been scrutinized thoroughly to identify the best wagering value on the card. It includes an in-depth analysis of whether the home team is undervalued, what changes the coaching staff is implementing, or why the total offers far more wagering value on a certain game.
You're invited to be a part of this expertise packed with the winning reasons behind each play through a subscription service. Don't try and do it all yourself when you can learn and have strong selections from an established pro.
Get free premium picks daily.