By Week 4 of the college football campaign, conference play is rolling and the strengths/weaknesses of teams have taken shape. Even those that started 1-2 or 0-3 still have a reasonable shot at playing in the postseason as 82 of the 131 FBS teams will participate in a bowl. A 6-6 record will give a school a shot at college football bowl eligibility.
Conference play can wipe the slate clean for teams that suffered some difficult non-conference losses. They may have started 0-2, but can still go undefeated in conference action or win the league title. It's also a time for handicappers to start examining turnovers on the stat sheet.
You can get a good indication of quarterbacks who are throwing too many interceptions and teams that have lost a lot of fumbles. Poor coaching is a part of that and turnover-prone squads are ones that lose a lot on the scoreboard - and against the spread when it comes to your college football picks and predictions.
Why Use Week 4 College Football Picks
The combination of statistics and up-to-date information are the building blocks for successful sports betting. Teams that have their first three games will garner national attention, some cracking the Top 25 for the first time.
They will no longer be hiding under the radar, but that will also be reflected in the Week 4 betting odds. Obtaining weekly college football picks is one way to keep up with all the latest information. Coaches are making personnel changes, some teams are down after their first defeat, while others are having a QB competition with the initial starter on shaky ground.
With 131 NCAA college football programs and just as many sides and totals each week, it's essential to get as much streamlined information as you can.
Betting Value in Week 4 College Football Picks
Oddsmakers pay more attention to the power five conferences and the high-profile games featuring marquee schools. That opens the door for smart bettors to find wagering value with the mid-major programs. They will be attracting less interest and money but the point spread payoff is the same.
There will be lesser-known schools that started 1-2 straight up with a tough schedule but are 3-0 against the spread. They won't be in the Top 25 and no one on a national level will be talking about them, but they've been under-the-radar hanging in there playing some competitive football.
A number of those mid-majors will be playing on the Thursday and Friday cards, which means you'll have to jump early on the best betting odds before they shift on game night.
Wunderdog Week 4 College Football Picks
I compile my own power ratings for every NCAA college football team as well as keep daily tabs on everything taking place on and off the field. Information is gold - if you know how to properly use it to identify the softest odds. The plays I release are dissected from multiple handicapping angles, including injuries, situations, CFB betting matchups, under-the-radar teams, and line value. I also understand the dynamics of line movement, knowing who the sharps are backing and which ones are moving simply because of smoke and hype. I'm in it to win it, ready to pounce on the best sides, totals, moneylines, and CFB parlays. And I'll share my longtime expertise with you at beating the books.
Week 4 College Football Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free Week 4 College Football Picks Pros:
- Acquiring free selections means gaining insight with no money lost or risked
- Should include a mixture of sides and totals
- Will help you grasp the complicated mechanics of early and late line movement
Free Week 4 College Football Picks Cons:
- Betting too many favorites
- Who the handicapper is might not be clear, nor their won/lost percentage
- Too many plays could confuse novice bettors, especially if the reasons aren't defined
Premium Picks Pros:
- Focuses on the top plays on the wagering card
- Time-saving as the professional is doing all the groundwork
- Streamlines the important information that gets to the heart of the weakest betting odds
Premium Picks Cons:
- The line moves significantly against the pick
- Because you're paying for premium picks you must get an increased profit margin
- Only get involved with documented services. If they're hiding their results their hiding other things
How To Win With Free Week 4 College Football Picks
Betting is a serious business. The sports books are trying to take your money while you're trying to beat them at their game. Winning requires work, knowledge of the games and the industry, examining the odds, patience, and correct money management.
A Week 4 team that is favored but has a quarterback who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns might not be justified as the favorite. If there's a team that is undefeated but hasn't played any tough opponents, should they be minus-10 against a conference rival instead of the 3-TD favorite that they are?
This is how you gauge whether a betting line is accurate or over-inflated. By signing up for free selections, you build your betting knowledge base to find those soft numbers.
Free Week 4 College Football Picks Betting Strategy
Totals
The first few games of the college football season is a time when defenses are ahead of the offenses. But by Week 4, players have had time to digest the playbook while quarterbacks have had ample practice and game time to get in sync with their targets.
The styles of play that coaches prefer factor into betting totals. Some coaches have a defensive background and prefer to build their teams around the defense. Those coaches often preach a ball-control style on offense that manages games and limits turnovers.
Those schools are comfortable with low-scoring, conservative games offering opportunities to look at UNDER the total. More modern pass-happy coaches are proponents of the no-huddle or an "Air Raid attack" trying to roll up as many points as possible. When they face similar teams or ones with weak defenses, there could be wagering value OVER.
Smaller Programs
When Mid-Major programs jump up in competition to play the Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC), it can be challenging from a handicapping perspective. There's a difference in athletic budgets and talent, so the Mid-Major is often an underdog.
Examine how a team's style of play matches up to the opponent. If the Mid-Major has a smallish defensive line and faces a Power 5 school that prefers to run all day long behind two terrific running backs, the other factors in the game are mitigated. It could be a long day if the smaller school can't stop the run.
On the other hand, some coaches relish the small school underdog role. They can put in special game plans or challenge their team so that they can play with anyone. Check a coach's history to see how his teams perform when stepping up.
Sloppy Schools
By Week 4 of the NCAA college football campaign, turnover tendencies begin to stand out. That can be a quarterback who throws a high percentage of picks or a sloppy team that fumbles a lot. Turnovers are huge at influencing the final score and the spread, but they're impossible to predict.
However, you can incorporate it into your pregame handicapping by examining turnover tendencies. For example, be cautious about backing a favorite that turns the ball over 2 times per game on average. Or if a QB that has a low completion percentage and a higher than average interception ratio may have a terrible game against a fast, elite secondary.
Free Week 4 College Football Picks Subscription
All my selections are examined thoroughly for mismatches and the best wagering value. I pass on a lot of games even after doing all the research. But there are plenty of edges with soft totals and sides.
You can take advantage of all the work I did to obtain my selections through a regular subscription service free of charge. Absorbing the key information accumulated from a documented professional bettor will help raise your betting knowledge - and your bankroll.
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