The WNBA Playoffs take place from late September to late October, a time when oddsmakers and sportsbook operators are also focused on the baseball playoffs, college football, the NFL, and the beginning of the NHL and NBA seasons. Those sports are far more critical to their daily win-loss handle, as the action dwarfs anything they receive from the WNBA playoffs. However, if you're serious about finding WNBA best bets and turning a sports betting profit, it pays to focus on where the oddsmakers are paying less attention.
The WNBA Stars Come Out to Play
The stars shine during the WNBA's postseason action, as the league is top-heavy, with only a handful of dominant players. Those stars have things in their favor to put up big numbers. The NBA plays 48 minutes per game while the WNBA plays only 40 (four ten-minute quarters). Fewer minutes mean coaches can lean on their most prominent stars for most of the game. Coaches don't have to go to the bench a lot, so handicappers can get a good sense of the matchups by examining the starting fives.
WNBA Playoff Prop Bets
With an emphasis on the best players carrying their teams and playing a lot of minutes, this provides excellent wagering prop opportunities. Props are posted on individual players, such as OVER/UNDER 24.5 points. Most props will have a half-point attached to the number. That's because the books would rather not have to "push" and refund money. Putting the half-point, or "hook", means any OVER/UNDER prop bets are going to win or lose. For handicappers, this is where matchups come into play. A player matched up against a great defender or a team that plays terrific defense might struggle to reach their season average in scoring, meaning the UNDER might be worth a look. Conversely, a star forward or center matched up against a team that struggles to rebound and lacks frontcourt muscle might have a big scoring night, hence the OVER might be the play. WNBA player props will be available on some of the top players for rebounds, assists, or turnovers. Putting in the handicapping effort helps to sift through the good oddsmaker numbers from the weak ones.
Undervalued WNBA Underdogs
Motivation differs significantly between the regular season and the postseason. Advancing in the playoffs is an honor that professional athletes take seriously. The remaining WNBA teams have been whittled down, so the few left standing boast some incredible talent. Additionally, many teams have a strong defense. All this creates the framework for live underdogs to play well, surprise the oddsmakers, and even pull upsets. The Connecticut Sun had a terrific 2023 campaign (27-13), ranking No. 1 in the league defensively in points allowed. Yet, they were an underdog in four playoff games against New York. Connecticut went 3-1 ATS, even winning the first game 78-63 as a +8.5 underdog. WNBA playoff underdogs at home are also worth a handicapping look. A home crowd cheering their team on can give an emotional boost, pushing players to excel defensively, dive for loose balls, or play more physical in the low post.
Injury Reports
Watching WNBA playoff games and keeping a close eye on injuries are two ways to gain advantages against the betting numbers. With oddsmakers paying more attention to so many other September/October sports, WNBA injuries can go under the radar. The league has elite talent that can dominate a game. If that star is dealing with a minor injury, that can quickly worsen and put them on the bench. That can also change the shape of the game. One can stay ahead of the oddsmakers by keeping up on WNBA lineup announcements and injuries, even small ones, and how that could impact the final score.
WNBA Playoff Totals
Sides and WNBA moneyline wagers are on what team will cover the point spread or win the game. Totals, or OVER/UNDER bets, are the total amount of points scored by both teams. For the final match of the 2024 WNBA Finals, the betting line on New York/Minnesota read "Liberty -5.5 O/U 157.5," which meant New York was a 5.5-point favorite with the total for points scored at 157.5. Notice the oddsmakers put a hook on both numbers? They don't care for pushes, so any bet is going to win or lose. New York won the game 67-62 in overtime, so Minnesota covered the accurate spread by half a point. However, the game sailed way UNDER the total despite playing an extra quarter. That's typical of many playoff games in all sports, especially winner-take-all Game 5s or Game 7s. Intense defense can be there the whole game with so much on the line. Handicapping that game, New York and Minnesota were ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in points allowed defensively during the regular season. Some playoff teams prefer an uptempo attack and are weak defensively, but many have strong all-around defensive stats. When those teams clash, I'll give more weight to the defensive numbers and gauge whether the total is overinflated.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Examining the regular-season meetings between two playoff teams provides valuable handicapping insight. Box scores reveal if certain players consistently had big games against an opponent or struggled. That offers clues to whether a team has a defensive stopper or not. That also helps to assess whether a star is likely to have a monster game or score below their season average. For OVER/UNDER bettors, studying a team's shooting percentages reveals whether the game was an offensive or defensive battle. Using the New York/Minnesota 2024 example, Minnesota went 3-1 SU/ATS during the regular season against the Liberty, winning three times as an underdog. That included a Commissioner's Cup championship game victory where the Lynx defeated New York, 94-89, as a +5.5 underdog. Regular-season results don't guarantee they'll be duplicated in the postseason, but they provide an excellent handicapping roadmap for finding some of the best sides, totals, and playoff props.
WNBA Playoff Trends
Betting trends have to be used carefully. A team may be on a 9-3 spread run, but it's best to identify if there are reasons behind that. It may be an anomaly. Or, a coach may have made lineup changes, and the team is playing much better. Oddsmakers may be undervaluing a team, but they can soon adjust their lines. The same is true for totals. Indiana entered the 2024 playoffs on a 27-13 run OVER the total. They were also the worst WNBA defensive team to make the postseason. When Minnesota Lynx took on New York Liberty for the winner-take-all Game 5 of the Finals, they were on a 17-8 ATS run, including 5-2 ATS as an underdog. They covered Game 5 as a dog. In addition, New York was on a 19-13 run UNDER the total, and Game 5 ended up sailing way UNDER despite overtime. Trends can be your friend, but only if there are concrete reasons attached to them.
Ignore Market Moves
A typical sports betting strategy involves identifying WNBA public money moves and going against them. The reasoning is that the average bettor is good at picking losers. And when the betting public is big on one side enough to move the line, they've probably found the biggest loser. While that can be true in many sports, there's less money wagered on the WNBA. A shifting WNBA side or total is more likely due to injury factors or sharp players, rather than a surge of betting action from Joe Public. I don't overreact or read too much into WNBA line moves when WNBA betting.
Getting in the Game
Oddsmakers are busy with other September and October sports and pay less attention to the WNBA playoffs. That's an excellent advantage for serious bettors who aim to pick winners. WNBA handicapping requires understanding the dominant stars in a top-heavy league while examining head-to-head matchups, injury reports, trends, playoff totals, and WNBA prop bets. Consistent winning is all about isolating the weakest lines and undervalued underdogs to find the best bets on the board.
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