The WNBA doesn't have the kind of fan base that pro and college basketball have. However, serious bettors shouldn't overlook the women’s league as an opportunity to profit. Sportsbooks pay less attention to it which offers up plenty of weak lines and winning opportunities.
Handicapping the WNBA
Examining stats such as team defense, field goal shooting, and home/road disparities is a staple for handicapping the NBA and the WNBA. Both have a 24-second shot clock. However, there are differences on the court and in the handicapping game. The WNBA has a shorter season (44 games), and players are generally better at free-throw shooting than their NBA counterparts. WNBA games run 40 minutes, while the NBA is 48. Coaches can lean on their star players more and demand less from the bench. The most significant handicapping difference though is that only a handful of elite WNBA players exist. This makes the league top-heavy with a few dominating players and teams. From 2015-24, the WNBA had eight teams with winning percentages of .794 or higher, while the NBA had just four. And remember, the NBA has more than twice as many teams.
WNBA Point Spread & Moneyline Betting
A point spread is posted by oddsmakers on every WNBA game. There will be one favorite and one underdog. For each wager, you bet roughly 10% more than what you will win, which is represented by -110 next to the odds. For instance, for the final game of the 2024 WNBA Finals, New York was a 5.5-point favorite (-110) over Minnesota. To win $100 on New York to cover the number, you would wager $110. New York did win the game in overtime, 67-62, but failed to cover the point spread by a point. The underdog (Minnesota) covered the point spread.
WNBA moneyline bets are placed on who you think will win the game outright. The point spread doesn't matter. The moneyline on New York was -260, which means you could bet $260 on the Liberty on the moneyline to win $100 or risk $100 to win $38.46. The moneyline on Minnesota was +200, meaning if you lay $100 on the Lynx and they win the game, you get back $300, including your stake and a nice +$200 payday.
The game in this example went into overtime, and while Minnesota failed to win on the moneyline, they did cover the point spread.
Handicapping is about trying to predict the final score in relation to the point spread and moneyline.
Heading into the final, the two teams had already faced each other eight times during the season, and Minnesota was 5-3 in those games. Five or fewer points decided four contests, and three games were decided in the final 10 seconds. Handicapping analysis revealed another close game was likely to occur—and it did, as you can't get much closer than a contest going into overtime.
WNBA Matchup Mismatches
The elite talent puts a premium on matchup handicapping. With WNBA games being shorter, the star players are on the court for a higher percentage than in the NBA, accentuating the matchup mismatches. The few teams with a tall, dominant frontcourt player can feed their center or star forward the basketball more. In 2023, the NBA averaged 35.6 3-point shots per game, while the WNBA averaged 24.5.
When I’m handicapping the WNBA I look at high-percentage mid-range and low-post shots more than treys. Most bettors don’t have time for this analysis but identifying subtle matchup edges helps gauge whether a betting line is correct or off. My clients count on me to help find the best bets hidden in the games.
Less Betting Action
Another advantage when you bet on the WNBA is that there is less interest and money wagered on the WNBA. Football receives the most scrutiny and sports betting action. Sportsbooks have greater financial liability if they post a soft football number. Big bettors pounce on it, while WNBA public money will tie it into WNBA parlays which the books want to avoid. A sport like the WNBA is more of an afterthought for sportsbooks. They still post daily WNBA betting odds, but the handle will be minimal. It takes less money to move a WNBA line than in football, college basketball, or the NBA. For bettors, it's best to be prepared and move quickly to lock in the weakest WNBA overnight lines, knowing that moving it won't take much money.
WNBA Totals
Basketball totals are often ignored by public bettors, but shouldn't be. Handicapping sides and totals doubles your chances of finding a soft line. This is where digging into team stats pays dividends for me and my clients, painting a picture of how the game may flow and what the final score range will likely be. WNBA team stats, such as points allowed, defensive field goal percentage, and offensive capabilities, provide this insight.
Defense begins with the head coach. They have to teach it in practice and demand it during the game. I research the head coaching history to understand whether the coach demands defense, prefers an uptempo offense, or struggles to teach and influence team defense.
Professional bettors making an early pounce will cause the total to move higher quickly. In addition, a WNBA team that played poor defense one season might be very good defensively the next if a new head coach, assistant coach, or incoming player changes the philosophy.
Information is Gold
One of the differences between wagering in the NBA and the WNBA is information. Acquiring important daily details on teams and players is easy when betting on the NBA. Sports newscasts, radio updates, Internet searches, and social media contain up-to-the-second information that can influence betting lines. Updates on injuries, lineup changes, trades, or coaching changes are key pieces in the battle between bettors and oddsmakers. In the WNBA, however, there's less news and fewer breaking stories. And with far less betting action on the WNBA, oddsmakers aren't as interested in digging deep to uncover info that can affect a team's performance. I include WNBA packages because while it isn’t as popular to watch historically, it offers great opportunities for bettors who want to win.
WNBA Advanced Stats
There are four more advanced stats that are helpful for handicapping the WNBA:
- Effective Field Goal Percentage
- Offensive Rebound Percentage
- Turnover Ratio
- Free Throw Attempt Rate
A handful of elite WNBA frontcourt players can dominate an opponent, gobbling up rebounds and leading to high-percentage shots. Sloppy teams that turn the basketball over will struggle to score and defend. Generally, free-throw shooters are better than their NBA counterparts, providing some teams with an extra consistent point or two, and one or two points can be a huge difference in beating the point spread.
Less Attention, More Advantage
If Las Vegas sportsbooks want to pay less attention to WNBA odds, that's a big plus for bettors who want to win consistently. I've posted multiple winning seasons with my premium WNBA picks, and will continue hunting for edges against weak numbers that the betting public cannot pick up on. WNBA coaches lean on star players more in this league, demanding less from the bench than in the NBA, which helps identify handicapping matchup mismatches. With limited wagering and fan interest, the WNBA creates an opportunity to take advantage of and profit from.
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