The WNBA Finals feature the best teams from both conferences competing for the title, and in a star-driven league like this, there aren't many secrets on the court. The teams have already had four head-to-head regular-season meetings to examine as a guide to how they match up. Each squad traditionally has at least one of the league's top players in the lineup, too, and as you can see by this list of recent MVPs, the superstars are no stranger to big games.
Here's a list of the recent WNBA MVP winners by year:
2024: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces (2-time WNBA champ)
2023: Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty (`24 league champ)
2022: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces (`23 playoff MVP)
2021: Jonquel Jones, Connecticut Sun ('24 playoff MVP)
2020: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
2019: Elena Delle Donne, Washington Mystics (`19 league champs)
2018: Breanna Stewart, Seattle Storm (also won playoff MVP)
As bettors, we still need to find an edge at the window, and I've uncovered several strategies to help do just that.
Who's Minding the Store?
Any championship round will feature only one game per day for bookmakers to post numbers on, which, in some sports, gives an edge to the book. But that's not quite the case for the WNBA Finals, however, which take place in October. Sportsbooks are handling action on college football, the NFL, the NBA, baseball playoffs, and the NHL at this time of year. The amount wagered on the WNBA Finals is going to be a drop in the bucket compared to the other sports. Oddsmakers are paying less attention to the nuances of the WNBA Finals, such as coaching moves, nagging injuries, player trash talk, or fan base intensity. But bettors who are serious about sports betting and winning are keying on these details, which leads to value.
Every Dog Has Its Day
From the Super Bowl to basketball championship games in college, the NBA, and the WNBA, underdogs are worth a first look. Power rankings have been built all season for oddsmakers to assess which team is the best. That helps them decide who should be the favorite. One factor that can't be quantified numerically is motivation. The underdog has been working hard all WNBA season to get to the Finals. Professional athletes have pride. The opportunity to be crowned champion doesn't happen often. The WNBA Finals underdog also boasts talent, ranking among the league's best teams after winning their conference. A content analysis of 149 consecutive WNBA Finals games found the favorites winning the games straight up 86-43 (66.7% of the time), while the underdog covered the point spread 69-59-1.
Home Court for the WNBA Finals
Home field and home court in all sports can provide anywhere from a slight boost to a significant one. The hometown fans are cheering the best plays, which can encourage even the most disciplined of professional athletes to turn it up an extra notch. Of those 149 consecutive WNBA Finals games, the home teams went 76-53 straight up (59%). Post-COVID against the spread, the home teams went 10-6-1 ATS. In 2021, WNBA champion Chicago went 5-0 SU/ATS at home in the postseason, winning the title as a six-seed during their improbable run. The Sky surprised Minnesota in the second round, 89-76, as a +4 underdog, and won both games at home against Connecticut, despite being underdogs of +4.5 and +4 points. They also won and covered both Finals games at home, 86-50 and 80-74.
WNBA Betting Totals: Stakes Rise, Scores Fall
Both of Chicago's home victories over Phoenix in 2021 went UNDER the total, part of a post-COVID 10-7 run UNDER for the WNBA Finals. That highlights a commonality in many sports: as the games become more important in the postseason, defensive intensity increases. Basketball offenses can be streaky, determined by touch and sync. Defense is different. Tough defense can be present for the entire game. This is why coaches are quick to call timeouts when an opponent goes on a 10-0 run, for instance. It's less about the lack of offense and more about the defense letting down, allowing easy baskets. With a championship at stake in the WNBA Finals, coaches will demand intense defense throughout the entire game. For bettors, this increases the opportunities for posted WNBA odds to go UNDER. That would include the game total, the first half, and various WNBA player props.
Deciding WNBA Games: Win or Go Home
Defensive intensity should be sky-high for any playoff team facing elimination. The 2024 WNBA Finals went the distance, and in the winner-take-all Game 5, New York edged Minnesota 67-62 as a 5.5-point favorite. Underdog Minnesota covered the point spread by a half-point. Anyone wagering on the side was sweating it out until the final seconds, however, UNDER bettors weren't stressing at all. The deciding game stayed UNDER 157.5 by 28 points, and that includes an overtime frame that yielded nine points. Minnesota shot 37.1%, while New York won despite shooting 30.6%. The defensive intensity was there all game, especially on the perimeter, as both teams combined to shoot 5-of-42 from 3-point land.
Head-to-Head Meetings
The WNBA's non-conference finalists have already met three times during the regular season. It's worth examining those WNBA matchups, comparing the final scores to the point spread and totals. Patterns can emerge that provide insight into predicting what might take place during the championship round.
- Did home teams dominate?
- Were they barnburners or defensive battles?
- Do these trends extend back multiple seasons?
Examining box scores can also be revealing. A star player may have struggled offensively because she was guarded by one of the league's best defensive players. It's also essential to note the situation and any injuries. If one team was ending a four-game road trip at the time, the scheduling situation was working against them at the time, and that won't be a factor in this head-to-head series. If one team was routed but was missing key players because of injuries, it's best not to read too much into the final score, especially if that star is healthy and perfomring well throughout the first two rounds of the playoffs.
WNBA Props
Proposition wagering, or WNBA prop bets, is based on the performance of individual players and specific outcomes within the game. A typical prop bet is OVER/UNDER 23.5 points on a star player, or OVER/UNDER 9.5 rebounds on a team's defensive star. Props receive far less action than game sides or totals, but can offer some of the best betting value. This is where handicapping matchups and head-to-head battles come into play. You also want to take the context into account. Coaches will shorten rotations as the series progresses, leaning heavily on their stars. Minutes will increase, but defenses will also tighten. If the star player is facing a team that plays an uptempo style or doesn't have a defensive stopper, then the star could be primed to have a high-scoring game. If they're facing a great defensive team, they may score far below their season average. A lot of the game tempo in these high pressure situations can hinge on location, so I'll look specifically at past performances "at site" when assessing props.
Final Word on the WNBA Finals
Smart betting on the WNBA Finals comes down to more than knowing who’s favored with betting odds — it’s about spotting the subtleties others miss. From defensive intensity that drives totals UNDER, to underdogs playing with urgency, to star players taking center stage and elevating their game. Oddsmakers are distracted by the chaos of October’s sports calendar, leaving opportunities on the board. I've hit 58% all-time with my WNBA sides in the playoffs, including spreads and moneyline bets, as I've continuously found value — often on massive underdogs. Even the final round of this league gets far less attention in the fall, but the winnings add up just the same.
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