By Week 9 in college football, the conference races are coming down the homestretch while the weather is turning cold and windy in many northern outdoor stadiums, a pair of additional factors when handicapping. The list of unbeaten teams has dwindled and they face an extra load trying to remain undefeated with opposing teams looking to garner a headline-grabbing upset.
Even teams having a poor season can get fired up to face an undefeated squad. In one recent season, the Cincinnati Bearcats were unbeaten heading into Week 9 with all kinds of things weighing on them: A Top 25 ranking, conference title hopes, and keeping the undefeated season alive.
In Week, 9, they were a 22-point favorite over Tulsa but had to hang on for dear life, 28-20, as Tulsa fumbled at the one-yard line in the final minute. Tulsa had a 3-6 record, including 2-3 in the conference, but played like it was their "Game of the Year."
It's also the time of the season when you can gather important information regarding home/road breakdowns. Some teams are world-beaters in their home stadium but play like a different team on the road.
That same season in the Pac 12, Arizona State was 6-1 at home, 2-3 away, Colorado was 4-2 home but winless on the road, while Oregon State was 6-0 home, 1-5 away. That's one reason why successful bettors have to examine all sorts of information and not get carried away with how a team played in week 8 of the college football season.
Why Use Free College Football Week 9 Picks
Winning in sports betting on a consistent basis is not easy but it absolutely can be done. It requires a lot of steps, beginning with gathering and analyzing information on as many teams as you can during the week. Sifting through the data will provide you insight into how effective one team will be.
You can find key factors such as injuries, coaching adjustments, a tired team off an emotional game, a highly focused or angry team, or one that has a losing record and the players sound as if they've already packed in the season. Then you assess what the betting line should be with a combination of power ratings and your own judgment, the latter of which, like anything, takes time and practice.
Obtaining weekly free NCAA college football picks into that mix adds to your ability to narrow the best wagering opportunities on the board.
Betting Value in Free College Football Week 9 Picks
I mentioned how that Oregon State squad was 6-0 straight up at home, but 1-5 on the road. Clearly, they were a very different team at Reser Stadium than they were away from it. That's more common in all sports than you might imagine, but there are reasons for it.
An NCAA college football team is almost always fired up to play well in front of the home fans, but many times a coaching staff needs to find a way to breathe that same level of confidence with a team on the road. These are young athletes aged 18-20, so their experience in front of hostile crowds and confidence level is far less than professional players.
With that Oregon State squad, the defense allowed 18 points per game at home but 33.6 per contest on the road. The offense averaged 35.8 points at home and 29.6 on the road, so there wasn't as stark a drop-off in production. So, when handicapping, doing home/road breakdowns can help assess how many points a team is going to score and allow, which is one way of identifying wagering value in the odds.
Also, teams that enter Week 9 with a losing record and no shot at a bowl can give up on a lost season. That same season, South Florida was 2-6 in Week 9 and lost its final four games, giving up the most points all season in three of them surrendering 54, 45, and 45 points. Not only can those be go-against teams, but they also can be worth a look at OVER the total.
Wunderdog Free College Football Week 9 Picks
I have an extensive database of coaches, players, and team stats that stretch back over two decades, in addition to all that experience evaluating where the best wagering edges are. I weigh multiple betting angles with the free picks that I release, including college football matchups, situational spots, and home/road breakdowns.
Key numbers factor into this, as well, which in college football are 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 21, and 24 points on sides, and 41, 45, 52, 55, 58, and 59 for totals. Those are higher numbers than in the NFL as college football features far more mismatches and one-sided matchups.
Adding my insight to your regular handicapping routine can only help you understand all the factors needed to accurately assess odds while increasing your winning percentage.
Free College Football Week 9 Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free College Football Week 9 Picks Pros:
- Getting professional insight on your side
- Someone accumulates and streamlines the key betting information for you
- You really are getting something for nothing: valuable information at no cost
Free College Football Week 9 Pick Cons:
- Not all websites provide up-to-date information or documented winners
- Handicapping Hype: Be dubious of services claiming "Lock" or "ACC Game of the Year".
- Line movement can be confusing, especially with few games on the college card like Thursday or late Saturday games
Premium College Football Week 9 Pick Pros:
- Top selections can have unique information that isn't easily attainable by the average bettor
- Expands your thinking to multiple betting tactics and options
- Premium picks should come with comprehensive analysis plus an above-average (52.4%) winning percentage
Premium College Football Week 9 Pick Cons:
- Addition cost
- No money management advice attached
- Many games come close to the final point spread, which can bring tension and decrease the enjoyment of watching college football
How To Win With Free College Football Week 9 Picks
The fundamentals are simple but time-consuming: gather information, read, and analyze. Getting armed with information prepares you for the process of evaluating the actual betting odds. If the oddsmaker made a good number on the side, examine the total for value, or props, moneylines, and team totals.
Having all those betting choices means more work, but it's great to have so many options. Like consumers in the free market, it expands the pool to find the best price and the odds that have the best opportunity to cash. Augmenting the information you study with Free College Football Week 9 Picks gets you better armed to find the most winnable numbers.
College Football Week 9 Picks Betting Strategy
Home/Road Variations
Just like in the NFL, college football programs that are well-coached or stocked with talent and depth can play as well at home as on the road. But many teams vary and some can vary wildly. There are always reasons for it, too.
For instance, in one recent season Hawaii was 4-2 straight up at home, but 2-5 on the road. Hawaii has always had the longest road trips to take for away games while visiting teams to Hawaii have to take their longest road treks of the season. Those long flights can take a toll on individual players and teams.
Other times, teams are motivated to give it their all in front of the hometown fans but are intimidated playing on the road against hostile crowds. In that same season as the Hawaii example, the Utah Utes were 6-0 at home, but 3-3 on the road. And in the Sun Belt Conference, South Alabama was 4-2 home, 1-5 away, while UL Monroe was 4-2 at home but winless (0-6) on the road. Dig deep to find the reasons why and examine both the offenses and defense.
You'll find a quarterback with a 15-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home, but 6-6 on the road. Or a defense that allows 20 ppg at home, but falls apart on the road allowing 35 ppg. That allows astute bettors to identify go-against spots or find wagering value in totals.
Winless and Unbeaten Teams
Just about everyone wants to knock off a red-hot or an undefeated team late in the season. One recent season, the Houston Cougars were riding a 7-game winning streak and a Top 25 ranking heading into Week 9. They headed to South Florida, a 2-6 team that was a +13.5 underdog, but the Bulls played like it was their Super Bowl in a wild 54-42 game that was 47-42 with four minutes left.
After winning its first 8 games to start the season, Wake Forest had to travel to North Carolina and lost 58-55 as Tar Heels fans stormed the field to celebrate. For bettors, an emotional win like that can mean to go against the team off a big win the following week as they're in a down spot. That happened with North Carolina, losing and failing to cover the following Saturday at Pitt.
Often overlooked by the public is Week 9 winless teams. Time is running out to get their first win of the season, which can be an enormous motivational factor. Kansas lost its first 10 games of the season and was a big underdog to No. 15 TCU. Yet, the Jayhawks gave the Frogs all they could handle in a 23-17 TCU win. Those winless dogs aren't so ugly when they play hard while getting a ton of points!
Number Shopping
Betting odds move all the time, so it's smarter to have multiple books to locate the optimal numbers. Line movement is an opportunity to get the best wagering price while also providing valuable insight into where the big money is flowing.
Following sharp money makes sense if you can find the reasons behind the movement, such as injuries or an overvalued team. The best way to see the most line movement is very early, from when the lines first come out and then an hour or so later when several odds will have moved, often quite a bit.
Football odds will shift most often around key numbers, such as from 3 to 2.5 or 6.5 to 7.5. There are more big favorites and dogs in college football, so you will see line movement from 20 to 16 on sides or with totals from 58 to 55, for instance. That's a sign the early odds were off on those games and some sharp players came in hard.
By having multiple books, you can grab that +19 or +20 before it follows the other books down to +16. Locking in the better numbers, even if it's just one or two points, will mean more wins by the end of the season than pushes of losses.
Free College Football Week 9 Picks Subscription
To get a jump on the sportsbooks, I spend the week digesting all the information, stats, matchups, and betting odds. I've mastered the art of handicapping because of two decades of experience with some downs but mostly ups to earn a consistent profit in the business.
You can get the first look at the upcoming weekend by signing up for my free picks subscription loaded with valuable information and insight for serious bettors - and at no cost. We all hope to win when stepping up to the wagering window, but when you're confident and fully prepared only then do you expect to win.
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