To be a successful bettor, you want to consistently position yourself with slightly better numbers than the closing odds. Let’s break this down.
The opening line is the first sports betting number posted. It can be posted hours, days, weeks, or even months before the contest takes place. For example, the first week of the NFL season is posted months earlier to pique the interest of football bettors and attract early action. Betting lines are then adjusted depending on which way the money comes in. The closing line then is the final number posted right when the game begins. Winning sports handicappers are focused on beating the closing line on a long-term basis.
Beating the closing line means that you placed your bet at a line that is better than what it closed at. Better means it will win more often. For example, if you are picking an underdog, getting +3 when it closes at +2 means you beat the closing line by one point.
Why Are Odds Shifting?
Like a frenzied day of trading on the stock market floor, money comes into sportsbooks from different sources on different numbers. Bettors are backing the favorite, the underdog, the total, moneyline plays, parlays, and more. Since the point of posting a number is to get close to equal action on both sides, the odds have to be adjusted. The sportsbooks are constantly calculating their risk and moving numbers to balance the action. If the home team on a Monday Night Football game opens at -7 but too much money comes in on the favorite, the bookmakers will move the number to -8 or -9 to entice bettors into backing the dog.
The Betting Line Moved a Point — So What?
I've heard bettors say, "Who cares what the number is? It's not going to matter. My team's going to win by 20 points." That may be true, but over the course of a betting season, making an effort to beat the closing line will be the difference between plenty of wins, losses, and pushes. Even the Super Bowl is not immune. In 2000, the line was mainly the Rams -7, but at times -7.5 and -6.5 were available. The Rams won, 23-16. Which ticket would you have wanted to hold?
In the 1979 Super Bowl, the line shifted on the Steelers from -3.5 to -4.5, then was bet down to -3.5 as bettors grabbed the Cowboys at +4.5. The Steelers won, 35-31, and it was a worst-case scenario for the books, who got crushed.
Drift and Steam
To beat the closing odds, one must lock in (wager on) a better number than what will be present the moment the event starts. Shifting odds can do two things: drift or steam.
"Drift" is when the odds move against you. If you back the Lakers at -7 and they're bet down to -4 by tipoff, the line drifted against you. You're stuck with a worse number (-7), meaning you failed to beat the closing line value.
"Steam" is when you beat the closing line. A "steam play" is when money is rolling in on one side at multiple sports books on one team. This is going to cause the odds to move. For instance, the Bears and Packers open at pick 'em and you grab Green Bay. Money pours in on the Packers moving them to a 3-point favorite. The number that you bought has better value than the closing line.
Finding Value Bets
Understanding the odds and line shopping help you find value bets. One key is to identify positive expected value bets and grab them at the optimal number before it drifts against you. One way of doing that is making your own odds based on your power rankings. Then compare your numbers with the opening line. Pro handicappers do this to get the early jump, narrowing the best choices on the card. Instead of studying all 12 games, for instance (or 50 on a college basketball or football Saturday), finding the most variance between your numbers and the opening odds allows a handicapper to focus immediately on just a handful of games.
Another way is to follow the betting markets. Opening numbers that shift are a clue that early money is coming in on one side. If you agree, a savvy bettor has multiple books and can find the wager on the weakest number before it moves.
Moneylines
Besting the closing moneyline is getting a better price than the odds available when the game starts. This is also known as positive closing line value (CLV).
Moneylines have several ways to provide CLV. Different books can have different odds on one team simultaneously, with one favoring the road team at -1, and another favoring the home team at -1. Naturally, the best value choice is to get your teams as an underdog at +1 point. However, if your assessment suggests that your team will win the game outright, instead of taking the +1 (-110), you could take them on the moneyline at even money or +110. The variance between -110 and +110 on the moneyline is a significant CLV.
Moneylines shift during the day in all sports, so you can lock in value if the closing line is higher than what you bet earlier. For serious bettors, this adds up throughout a season to help you increase your bankroll.
In-Game Strategies
Once a contest has started, the only wagering available is in-game betting. Odds fluctuate during the game depending on the score. The pace is intense, requiring concentration and discipline, but opportunities to beat the CLV do exist.
If a football or basketball team is a 10-point favorite but is tied in the second or third quarter, in-game numbers will be available, such as -8 or -7. The favorite has to cover the final score by 8 or 7 points—etter value than the closing line of -10. Betting pros can make educated assessments on what will likely occur regarding team strategy and the final score. If a 3-point football favorite is leading 24-0 at the half, they're probably not going to try to pour it on in the second half. It will likely be a conservative second-half game plan, trying to limit turnovers, kill the clock, and lean on the defense. The losing team might be a 6-point second-half favorite. You're getting them at +18 for the game compared to the closing line. If they win the second half by a 14-7 score but lose the game 31-14, the second-half wager on the losing team wins.
Totals
Totals generally move more than sides. Fewer bettors look at totals, and sports books know that big-money sharp players pounce on soft totals. The books are more likely to get one-sided action on a total, forcing them to move the number a few points. I approach totals in a similar way as sides. I make my own numbers and compare mine to those of the oddsmakers, providing one piece of information and helping identify possible soft lines.
Beating the Book with CLV
The closing line is the final odds posted by the sportsbooks as the game begins. Consistently winning and the sharpest sports bettors are always looking to position themselves with slightly better numbers than the closing odds and are consistently beating the closing line. There are numerous ways to identify a value bet, such as anticipating drift, steam, and in-game strategies. The more sides, totals, moneylines, and props a handicapper can lock early, the more positive CLV is in their favor. These are just some of the approaches I use to help set my clients up for long-term betting success. Try my picks for free.
Get free premium picks daily.