2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 07, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:34PM ET.
Washington at Tampa Bay
Saturday 01/07 04:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Game Total UNDER 37 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: WIN
The Skins took a 5-6 midseason record and turned it into 10-6 final record as they come storming into the playoffs. Tampa finished the regular season a bit better at 11-5. Earlier this season, Tampa pulled out a one point victory in a game between these two teams that accumulated 71 total points. This is a very good matchup and one that I expect to have a very different outcome in points scored. Over the past two seasons, Tampa has gone UNDER 66% of the time at home. As a home favorite, as they are in this game, the percentage improves to 75%. Joe Gibbs likes defense. His team is ranked 9th overall in defense this year. As the coach of the Skins, his teams have gone UNDER 65% of the time in all games played. As an underdog, that figure improves to 74%! And, you can see how he relies on his defense in big games. In all games vs. winning teams (favorite and underdog), Gibbs-coached Redskins teams have gone 75% UNDER the total. Think Gruden is thinking offense here or defense? Glad to be back in the playoffs after his post-Super Bowl hiatus, he remembers what got him there three years ago. Tampa's defense finished this season ranked #1 in yards allowed (278 per game). Their worst performance was against these Skins and they are going to come out fired up to atone for that. Two stars on the UNDER here.