2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 30, 2005

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

30

Tampa Bay at San Francisco

Sunday 10/30 04:15 PM Eastern

4 units on Tampa Bay -10.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: LOSS

Last week we faded San Francisco, backing Washington as a 12.5 point favorite. For an underdog guy, I had to think long and hard about that pick. But, everything pointed to a Washington blowout and it ultimately turned out to be the right call as San Francisco lost by 35 points. Ladies and Gentleman, San Francisco is just awful. If you thought they were bad last year, you ain't seen nothing yet. They are on pace to set a new "low" record in my power ratings for any NFL team - ever. Their offensive line is about as good as my local high school team's and that's a recipe for absolute disaster in the NFL. Ken Dorsey (third stringer a few weeks ago) gets the call today for San Fran but it doesn't matter. Alex Smith or Dorsey - same outcome. Against the league's top defense, they are in loads of trouble here. Tampa has allowed 171 yards per game through the air this season. As good as their pass defense is, their run defense is even better, allowing 62 yards per game. San Francisco's 31st ranked offense doesn't stand a chance. If they are lucky they eek out a few field goals in this game. Tampa Bay isn't as good as Washington but they are still a top 10 team and they are going to walk all over the Niners. Tampa Bay must start Chris Simms in this one but no worries. He's had two weeks to prepare and he gets just what he needs - the 49er defense which is ranked, um, dead last in the league. I hope they arm Mike Nolan with a white flag in this one so he can surrender when this thing gets out of control in the first half. Take the Bucs minus the points for four stars.

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