2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 17, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 8:18PM ET.

17

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Sunday 09/17 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: WIN

That Falcons showed last week that they have found some defense. The addition of John Abraham has really shored up what was an average squad. Sure, the absence of Steve Smith affected the outcome of their win last week but even without Smith, it's very impressive that they held the Panthers to six points. Abraham forced two fumbles and had two sacks, earning NFC defensive player of the week, before exiting the game with a groin injury. Also injured was Patrick Kerney (tricep). I am assuming they go this week based on Kerney's comments on Monday: "I definitely think I'll be able to go. I expect Abe to go. He's in the same situation I am. He's feeling light years better than he was." We all know about Tampa Bay's defense. Despite the poor showing last week, this is a solid group. Their offense is another issue. The Bucs were shut out last week as Chris Simms threw three interceptions and was sacked three times. He'll perform better this week but I still expect a low-scoring affair. He may again get get little help from Cadillac Williams who continues to suffer back spasms. He did not practice Thursday but will likely play on Sunday. The question is, how effective can a back like him be if his back is not 100%? Last week he managed just 22 yards thanks to the spasms. Tampa Bay is 8-1 UNDER in the first month of the season the past three years under Gruden and 10-2 UNDER overall on the road over that time span when the total is between 36 and 42 points. i expect Atlanta to pound the ball like they did last week to chew up yards and clock and for Tampa to have a tough time moving the ball. I like this one to go UNDER.

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