2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 10, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 8:07PM ET.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles
Monday 10/10 09:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Pittsburgh +3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: WIN
No one hotter than the San Diego Chargers right now. After a rough start, they've delivered two straight blowouts. Last week they beat the Super Bowl champs 41-17. Pittsburgh is off a home loss to that same New England team. Shouldn't the Chargers be favored by more here? This line is being pushed hard towards -3.5 right now as those taking San Diego -3 are being forced to lay -120 to -125 at most books. This line may move to +3.5 later in the day. Is that the right diretion? Actually, no. I like the dog here quite a bit. LaDanian Tomlinson is absolutely tearing it up. The public knows it. Heck, they saw it in last week's marquee matchup. Drew Brees has proven he was not a one-hit wonder last season. Right now San Diego looks unbeatable, having put up 40+ points two weeks in a row against two good teams. This is a perfect time, ladies and germs, to fade them. Think the Pittsburgh defense is going to be fired up for this one? What a challenge! Just the kind of challenge that a defense like the Steelers relish. The Steelers are giving up 12.3 points per game, by the way. Pitt is grumpy and motivated, coming off a close loss to their nemisis - the Patriots at Hines field. That was a bitter loss in a game they could have won. They are off a bye and have prepared hard for this one. This is a team, under Ben Roethlisberger, that doesn't lose two in a row. Unlike the Patriots, Pitt has the running game to match the output of LT. Willie Parker has been lights out, Staley will get more carries tonight and Jerome Bettis may return for this one as well. That running game is what has allowed Roethlisberger, a QB who knows his role, to shine. He is the highest rated passer in the entire league. My computer simulation predicts a very tight game. I don't always agree with the computer but in this case I do. This line is inflated due to San Diego's recent success and the recent results against a common opponent - New England. But, San Diego's win against New England was more of a stituational than power-thing. The reason we backed San Diego in that one was that the Pats had just come off a very draining close game against the Steelers! This line should be closer to a pick 'em. We'll take the three point gift in a game that can go either way. If you can get this at 3.5, it's a very high percentage play.