2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 26, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:33AM ET.

26

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Sunday 11/26 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Pittsburgh +3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: LOSS

Everyone is wondering what happened to the Steelers this year. Where is the Steel Curtain defense? Where is the offense? It's a mystery to most but we think we have the answer - a simple one. You just don't win NFL games when your turning the ball over 20 times in 5 losses, and your opponent is turning it over only 7 times! Four of the Steeler losses had Pittsburgh notching 18 turnovers vs. 6 for their opponents. In those games, Pittsburgh on average outplayed their opponents gaining 96 first downs to just 61 for their opponents! The Steelers outgained all 4 of these opponents in losses by 154 yards a game! Think about this because it is huge. They have generated an average of 9 more first downs than the opponents with an average of 3 less possessions per game. They have outgained these opponents by 154 yds per game, despite spotting them 3 extra possessions. The fact is that this is the same Steelers team as last year. Big Ben took a while to get things going after appendix surgery, a motorcycle accident, and a concussion. He was "off" in the early season. But, we have seen a different team the past two weeks than we have seen all season. There is a hint to what the oddsmakers think in the posted line. When is the last time you have seen an NFL team on a four game winning streak, playing at home with an 8-2 record vs. a team that is 4-6, that is considered even? They are giving the obligatory 3 points for home field advantage. What it is saying to us is the Steelers are the better team in the oddsmakers eyes, and they are to us as well. Baltimore has shown some chinks in the armor over the second half of the season. They held opponents to 9.2 ppg over the first 5 games, but have yielded 20.2 ppg over the last five. There is one major difference here. Pittsburgh is playing for their playoff lives, and believe they can run the table, and finish 10-6. Baltimore is in the driver's seat, and will come to play, but the emotional edge goes to Pittsburgh. We all know what this team is capable of when they are right, and they are as close to right for this weeks game, than they have been all season.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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