New York at Dallas

The NFL buzz has been on the injury to QB Aaron Rodgers. But New York has an experienced backup in Zach Wilson (22 starts). He was 14-of-21 passing in the opener while the ground game had 172 yards (6.1 ypc) in a 22-16 upset of the Bills. And the Jets defense held Buffalo to 314 total yards and 5-of-13 on third down. That Buffalo offense was second in the NFL in 2022 in total yards (397.6 per game) and points (28.4 pg). The New York defense was fourth in the league in total yards and points (18.6 per game) allowed last year, plus Top 10 in third-down defense (38.11%). Dallas certainly looked like world-beaters in the opener, a 40-0 win, but there's been an overreaction with the line movement for this game. A year ago, the Cowboys' biggest victory of the season was a 40-3 blowout at Minnesota. The next week they were a double-digit favorite at home but failed to cover in a close one against the Giants. They also had a 54-19 rout of the Colts, only to squeak by Houston the next week, 27-23, as 17-point chalk. Dallas is 13-26 ATS after scoring 24+ points in the first half, plus 5-18 ATS after a win by 28 or more points. Play the New York Jets.