2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 16, 2005
This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 8:08PM ET.
New York at Dallas
Sunday 10/16 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on New York +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: WIN
Dallas is coming off a dismantling of the mighty Philadelphia Eagles. They are a solid team, for sure. But, my oh my - our memories are short. The decisive win over the Eagles seems to have made folks forget that the three prior weeks, the 'Boys lost to Oakland, almost (should have) lost to San Francisco, and lost to the Redskins. The last two weeks, they have played Parcells ball, not turning it over at all. This has helped them perform well. But, on Sunday, the Cowboys are going to get a stiff test from the G-Men and the top offense in the league. New York is putting up 34 points per game and haven't scored fewer than 23 this season. Eli is looking like Peyton, Shockey is back in his rookie form and Tiki Barber and Plaxico Burress round out a frightening attack. New York has really have had just one bad game - against the Chargers. But, that was a tough spot for them as San Diego was a cornered animal fighting for a must-have win at home under the Sunday night national spotlight. And, we have subsequently learned how good the Chargers really are. Outside of that one game, the Giants have won by an average score of 38 to 18! It's no wonder that my supercomputer simulation in this one predicts an outright New York win. The computer utilizes primarily statistics which is a key handicapping component. But, what about situation/motivation? New York is coming in well rested while Dallas is off an emotional game and will likely be without the services of Julius Jones. I've got a 20-0 trend that applies in this one. It involves underdogs playing against a team off a big dominating win. This year it has surfaced 2 times and is perfect. In week 3, Tampa was coming off a 19-3 win over Buffalo and won by just one point against Green Bay as a 3.5 point favorite. Also in week 3, Philadelphia came off a 42-3 shellacking of San Francisco. They were 8.5 point favorites against Oakland but only won by 3 points. I expect a similar letdown here for Dallas. We get over a field goal on the better team in a good situation. Take the Giants plus the points here for three stars.