2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 05, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:20AM ET.

05

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Sunday 11/05 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Tampa Bay +1 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: LOSS

Baltimore exposed New Orleans last week. We were on the Ravens strong for a bunch of reasons, one being that New Orleans was a bit overrated (and remain so). They had built up a very strong 5-1 record prior to last week. Their offense and defense appeared very strong. And the public loved them (Reggie Bush, great story about bouncing back after Katrina, etc). What did we learn last week? Well, against a good defense, their offense isn't quite so potent. The Saints offense is ranked 7th but I don't think it's a top 7 offense. Even last week, if not for some late meaningless scores, they wouldn't have managed the 22 points they did. Their defense is now ranked 13th in yards allowed and 18th in points allowed. But they gave up 35 last week to Baltimore who supposedly had no offense. They held Cleveland to 14 in week one but who cares - that was Cleveland. They kept Atlanta to 3 in week 4 on Monday Night but we can throw that one out (that was a very emotional spot for them and Atlanta had no chance). The fact is the Saints have given up an average of 25 points per game the past four weeks. Tampa lost by 3 in New Orleans earlier this season. They outgained the Saints 406 to 314 in that game. Tampa would have won if not for a late 65-yard Reggie Bush punt return. The Bucs outplayed the Saints. Gradowski was 20-for-31 for 225 yards and two touchdowns - his best game yet. He was in a bad spot last week trying to come back from 21-0 in the first half. This week, he's got a much more favorable matchup. At home, with revenge on their minds, I like the Bucs to get the win.

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