2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 21, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
New England at Indianapolis
Sunday 01/21 06:30 PM Eastern
3 units on New England +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: loss
4 units on New England +3 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: loss
here we are again Indianapolis and New England. These teams have made the playoffs their home over the last several years, but with much different results. new England has gone on to win 3 Superbowls, and Indianapolis has yet to make an appearance in one. The QB match-up is a contemporary version of Joe Montana, and Dan Marino. Brady has won 3 Superbowls, 2 Superbowl MVP'S, and carries a 12-1 playoff record. Manning has made 7 Pro Bowl appearances and has 2 MVP'S, but has yet to get to the big show. it would appear that Bill Belichick rents space in Manning's head. he has thrown just 1 TD pass and has been picked off 5 times in 2 playoff games vs the Pats. Manning has not been executing in the playoffs this year either, as he has identical 1 TD and 5 INT stats. We mentioned this before last week's game, and the fact is this New England team has allowed the fewest points of any under the Belichick regime. There is something about this team where the performance of the team is greater than the sum of its parts, year after year. New England always ranks higher in points scored, than they do in offensive yards per game. They always rank higher in defensive points allowed vs yards allowed. This year the defense is ranked 5th in yards allowed, but 2nd in points. The offense ranks 11th in yards, but 7th in points. That is a +7 on both sides of the ball. The last 4 years NE has been +52 on offense comparing points scored ranking to points ranking, and +27 on defense. The rest of the playoff teams in the league have averaged +1.75 on offense, and +1.06 on defense. This is the impact of two things. Brady and Belichick. Last week NE faced a critical situation trailing in the game, and faced a 3rd and 4 in SD territory. belichick summons Kevin Faulk into the game. NE always brings Faulk in for these situations to pass block. What does Belichick do? He hands off to Faulk, who runs easily for a 1st down. There is not a 1,000 yard running back on this team, nor is their a 1,000 yard receiver. Then there is Jabar Gaffney. He caught 11 balls all season, so Belichick designs ways to get him the ball. He catches 8 balls for 104 vs the Jets, and 10 for 103 against SD. That is the Brady/Belichick factor. The high powered, star studded offense of Indianapolis outscored the New England offense by very little. NE scored 27.1ppg on the road, Indianapolis scored 28.9 at home. The Indianapolis offense has not translated well in the playoffs. The last 11 appearances they have been held to 18 or less points in 7 of the games. Indianapolis beat NE at New England this year 27-20. They won by just 7 even having a +3 turnover advantage. Belichick is 10-1 ATS revenging a same season upset loss. New England is 11-1 ATS vs teams that average 7.5+ yds. per attempt since '92, and 6-0 ATS vs teams that allow a 61%+ pass completion percentage. Can they slowdown Indianapolis on turf? They are 7-0 ATS on turf the last 3 years, and own a 10-1 ATS record at Indy since '92. The setting, some of the players may be different, but two things remain the same, Brady and Belichick. Give us points in any game with NE and we are on them, as Belichick is 21-8-1 ATS as an underdog. New England comes out of this one with the money!