2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 03, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:38AM ET.

03

Minnesota at Chicago

Sunday 12/03 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total UNDER 36 -110 (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: PUSH

It will feel good for Chicago to be back home after three games on the road. The one thing that made this team lethal earlier, outside of their defense of course, was the outstanding play of Grossman. But he has become the make or break guy for this team with his erratic play. The defense on this field can win a game all by itself but the question remains - which Grossman shows up? We'd venture a guess that the game plan will involve letting the defense win it, and the offense will be planned to keep Grossman from losing it. Minnesota has struggled on offense, especially vs. defenses like Chicago plays at home. The game tempurature is going to be in the low 20s, which usually means a grind 'em out type of game. Outside of one game, Chicago has given up just 6.1 ppg in its last 10 at home. That one game of course was the Miami game which was anything but normal (6 Chicago turnovers). We don't think Grossman is going to be put in the situation where he can lose the game. He'll be asked to manage it, let the defense create field position, and score enough to win the game. Chicago is 15-5 to the UNDER after a SU loss, and has scored 10 ppg less over the last four than they did in the first seven when they were lighting it up. Minnesota is 10-1 to the UNDER after scoring 30. This has the look of a 16-6 type game to us, and we will act accordingly.

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