2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 23, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:31AM ET.
Miami at Detroit
Thursday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Detroit +2.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: LOSS
Forgive us if we are not yet believers in the Miami Dolphins. We know they are the talk of the town having won three straight games. But let's look at those three games. They beat Kansas City but scored just 13 points. They throttled the Chicago Bears but benefited from six Chicago turnovers. Then last week they had a "false" win over Minnesota. The Fins scored 2 defensive touchdowns in that game, returning a Minnesota fumble for a touchdown for the win. Of their 68 points the past three weeks, 21 have come from the defense. That leaves 15.7 per game from the offense - over their "great" run. Prior to that they were averaging 14.6 per game. So, this offense has shown over the course of 10 weeks, the ability to score about 15 points per game. Detroit's offense is averaging over 18 per game. We know Miami has the better defense. But should this team be laying 3 points on the road on Thanksgiving? We think not. Miami's defense is a bit banged up with SS Travares TIllman out and CB Will Allen questionable for this game. Backing Detroit is a tough pill to swallow after watching them lose two straight to San Francisco and Arizona. But that's exactly why we are getting value on them here. In each of those games, they lost the turnover battle notching 5 total to just 1 against. Both games were winnable. This one is too.