2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 05, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:21AM ET.
Miami at Chicago
Sunday 11/05 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Game Total UNDER 37.5 -110 (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: LOSS
Folks, there are few sure things in life. But opponents struggling to score at Soldier Field is one of them. Last year, the Bears allowed double digits only once (against high-powered Cincinnati in week 3). They held their other 7 home opponents to under 10 points. Three of them scored just 3 points. This season the Bears have picked up where they left off. In four home games, they have allowed 7, 6, 7, and 10. So combined that's 11 opponents out of the last 12 that they have held to 10 or less points! This is a matter of pride to this defense. They really want to "protect their house" and it shows. Miami comes in with the 29th ranked scoring offense. The Bears own the #1 rated defense from absolutely every meaningful perspective. Yards allowed per game? #1. Yards per play? #1. Points per game? #1. So bank on the Bears holding the Fins to single digits (good side bet if you can get it is to take Miami to score UNDER 12 points in this game). Chicago can certainly score. They actually lead the league in points per game at 31.6. But they are only ranked 12th in yards per game and 18th in yards per play. Miami has the 8th ranked defense in yards per game. Chicago has padded their offensive stats a bit playing some of the worst defenses in the league in Green Bay, Detroit, Arizona and San Francisco. They will see a different defense this week. Miami's game plan? Keep the game low scoring. Nick Saban knows his team isn't going to win a shootout - not against this Bears defense. I look for a very low scoring game here - one that comes in under the posted total.