2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

August 06, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 7:42PM ET.

06

Las Vegas at Philadelphia

Sunday 08/06 08:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Las Vegas +3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: WIN

August 8th - Hall of Fame Game, Canton Ohio. Unlike last year when I didn't have an opinion on the opening game, I think we have been handed a gift in this year's Hall of Fame Game. Next week I'll be sharing my preseason NFL betting philosophy in detail but for now I'll give you a taste as it relates to this game. The preseason is not about stats as much as it is about motivation and situations. Starters don't play long in most preseason games so forget which team is better here. Instead, look at who wants it more. Who is motivated to play hard? Both teams are off bad seasons so they both probably want to start off 2006 on a good note. But, Oakland's season was worse. Many predicted them to be much improved in 2005 with the addition of Randy Moss. Well, they won 4 games. Philadelphia won 6 but they had T.O. to blame and at least subconciously, they know they will be good again this year. They don't have a whole lot to prove in the preseason. Oakland's situation was so bad that they fired their coach and brought in Art Shell. Shell desperately wants to instill a winning attitude and tradition from the start. I think he'll take this game more seriously than will Andy Reid. He doesn't have an established starting quarterback like Philadelphia does with McNabb. How many snaps does McNabb really need? In contrast, Aaron Brooks is new to this offense so there's a good chance he'll go a bit longer as he needs the reps. I keep detailed stats on coaches tendancies and records in the preseason and Reid has shown that he just doesn't care about getting victories in the preseason. He's got an 8-15 record in exhibition games as a head coach. Underdogs playing against "bad" preseason coaches like Reid are often excellent bets. Also, backing teams that have had back-to-back poor regular seasons (Oakland won 5 games in 2004) are also good bets as the franchise is actually trying in the preseason. I think Oakland is much more motivated and should win this game outright. With the 3 point insurance, I like the underdog here.

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Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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