2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 10, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:42AM ET.
Las Vegas at Cincinnati
Sunday 12/10 01:00 PM Eastern
5 units on Las Vegas +11 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55) RESULT: LOSS
Ready for the shocker stat of the week? Oakland has one of the best defenses in the league! Yes it's true. Read on. Last year Oakland was horrible and they started 2006 the same way. They've improved, covering the sepread in six of their last eight. They remain bad on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense has quietly posted great numbers. Oakland allowed 30+ points five times last year, but were only a 9+ point underdog three times. This year they have been instilled as a 9+ point underdog now for the 7th time despite a much better defense. The lines they are getting are out of whack and that's why they are covering the spread nearly every week. They are at the top of the league ranked #4 in yards allowed. They started the year giving up 113 points in their first 4 games or 28.3 ppg. Since then they have given up just 16.1 ppg. When you think defense in the NFL, you immediately think of Baltimore, Jacksonville and Chicago. Oakland is within 10 yards per game of all three of those teams. Cinncinati is thought of as an offensive force, and has only been held to 17 or less four times. But who held them down? Those low scoring outputs came at the hands of teams with the Oakland caliber of defense. Baltimore #1 held them to 13, New England #9 held them to 13. Carolina #11 held them to 17. So there's a good chance Cincinnati doesn't go crazy on offense this week. We have in Cinncinati the second worst defense in the league. Since the defensive turnaround by Oakland in game five, they have been getting 9 or more points consistently and this will be the sixth time. All they have done is go 5-0 ATS, and have covered 6 of 8 in all. Cinncinati is just 8-20-1 ATS last 29 vs teams with a losing record at home, and just 3-10-1 ATS last 14 at home. We will gladly take the huge points here with the team with a top 5 defense vs. a team with a bottom-of-the barrel defense.