2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 17, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:55AM ET.
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Sunday 12/17 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Tennessee +3.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: WIN
It has been a tale of two seasons for Tennessee and a tale two locations (home vs. the road) for Jacksonville. Let's start with the Titans. This is a team that started 0-5 and looked like a team that was heading for the top selection in next year's draft. That prompted the appearance of Vince Young in an attempt to gain some valuable experience for next year. Things changed dramatically as Young has proven to be one of the most versatile, clutch performers in an NFL uniform. He has improved week by week and has turned Tennessee into a winner. A team that averaged 12 ppg in its first five games has averaged 23.4 ppg since. It also helped a poor defense to stay off the field and improve. Even the defense which allowed 27 ppg early on is now allowing 22 ppg. Overall a 17 point improvement counting both sides of the ball. The net result has been four straight wins and 6 of 8 with one of the losses by 1 point to Baltimore. Young started slowly completed only 45.7% of his passes through his first seven games. But in his last three he has completed 65%! He has also gained 459 yards and his long run in OT gave the Titans their fourth straight win. Jacksonville is fresh off a 375 yard rushing performance vs. the Colts at home. They are feeling pretty good and they are elite now after last week in the eyes of the public. This is a team that has dominated good opponents at home. They have played four likely playoff teams at home and gone 6-1. They have pounded all comers by scoring 26.4 ppg and giving up just 9.1 ppg. The road has been a completely different story. Away from home they have played just one likely playoff team, stand at 2-4, have been outgained, given up more first downs, and have been outscored 18.7 ppg to 21.2 ppg. Just like the Titans have improved by 17 points a game since week five on both sides of the ball, the Jags are 9 ppg worse on offense on the road and 12 ppg worse on defense. That is a net change of 21 ppg! What makes that more dramatic is they have played four likely playoff teams at home, and just one on the road. It stands to reason they are just 5-12 ATS as a road favorite, and 0-4 ATS after a 14+ point win. When you have a red-hot team that has im proved by 17 points a game, playing a team on the road that is 21 ppg worse than they are at home, and your getting points, you have to ride them.