2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 07, 2006

This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:34PM ET.

07

Jacksonville at New England

Saturday 01/07 08:00 PM Eastern

1 unit on Game Total OVER 37.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)  RESULT: LOSS

Who wants a piece of New England? No one right now. Especially not at home. New England actually has a chip on their shoulder as they are talking about making a statement here to show all of their mid-season doubters how wrong they were. Going against Bellichick and Brady has been pure death in the playoffs and thus we see a big line here. My gut says they'll cover it but I don't have enough statistical or historical evidence to make a call on that one. Can the Jags score in this game? I think they can score (enough) to force an OVER. While not known as an offensive powerhouse, the Jags actually scored 25 points per game this season. Against good defenses they only managed 15 PPG and that's probably about what they will score in this one (14-17 points). That leaves 21-24 from New England to get the OVER. The Pats really picked up steam at the end of the season, especially on offense. In their last four games, they averaged 30 points per game and that included a game against Tampa Bay (NFL #1 defense). With Brady playing at his peak, this team can score against anyone, including Jacksonville. I know Jacksonville's defense is very good. But that doesn't scare Brady one iota. The Pats put up 28 against Tampa a few weeks back and that is a much better defense. And who would be shocked if this New England defense scored once or twice? The clincher? Several key Jacksonville defenders are out or questionable including a starting linebacker, both starting defensive ends, and a starting safety. January is New England time and they will score enough here to get the OVER. One star on the OVER.

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