2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 19, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 12:30AM ET.
Indianapolis at Dallas
Sunday 11/19 04:15 PM Eastern
5 units on Indianapolis +1.5 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55) RESULT: WIN
This becomes the time of year where everyone begins to think about the Colts going undefeated. They have had lots of close calls this year, and again last week pulled out a 1 point win for the second time this season. Dallas has taken on a much more confident look with Romo at QB, and should be 3-0 since he took over, except for a very strange ending vs Washington. There are some interesting situations shaping up for this game. The first is the pointspread. We have an undefeated team that is in a virtual pick-em game vs a 5-4 team. The oddsmakers are saying Dallas can play with this team, and we agree wholeheartedly. Last year Indy hit this stage of the season having averaged 38.5 ppg in its last six. This year they have only managed to top 38 one time. The lack of a running game has slowed this team down a bit, but still they truly are an offensive force. However, if you can believe it, Dallas is outscoring the vaunted Colts offense (and they are even in yards gained)! Since Romo took over, Dallas is averaging 405 yards per game of offense - good for #1 in the entire league. The Colts are the worst team in the entire NFL against the run. This allows teams to keep the Colts offense off the field more than years' past, lowering Manning's scoring opportunities. They are allowing 160 per game on the ground, keeping not a single opponent under 100 (compare that to Dallas who has held all but two opponents to under 100). Dallas has scored the 3rd most points in the NFL at 28 ppg, so their offense will be on the field plenty. Dallas also has the #3 ranked defense in total yards in the league, so it will be the first time Indy is going to face a team that is top caliber on both sides of the ball. We don't want to sound like Romo is the second coming of Manning here, but these are numbers worth noting. They each are completeing 65.6% of their passes. Romo is at 8.8 yds per attempt, Manning only 7.9. Manning's rating is 104.5, Romo sits at 101.2. This is an offense under Bledsoe that got 6.9 yards per attempt. If you think Indy is the better team, consider that Dallas is winning by an average margin of 8.4 while Indy is winning by just 6.7. Parcells is 61% lifetime ATS as an underdog. Dallas has a lot more on the line here, and hunted is he who wears the crown, and at 9-0 everyone is gunning for you. Expect Dallas to be very energized and intense. If Indy doesn't match that energy, Dallas will win easily. If they do Dallas has enough talent on both sides of the ball to win as well. This should be a good game, and score one for America's team.