2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 06, 2005

This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:04PM ET.

06

Houston at Jacksonville

Sunday 11/06 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Jacksonville -13 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55)  RESULT: LOSS

Similar to the Carolina/Tampa Bay game, this matchup was set up perfectly based on last week's results. Houston notched their first win of the season, an upset, while Jacksonville lost as a favorite. While this is a lot of points, it still represents a lot of value based on last week's results. If Houston lost (which they easily could have) and Jacksonville won (which they easily could have), this line would be much higher. It should be around 17 points in my opinion. Wait a minute, you say. Jacksonville doesn't blow anyone out. They play close games! Yes, they have played close games. But, let's look at who they have played. They have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, if not the toughest. They have played Seattle, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh - all Super Bowl contenders! To go 3-2 against those opponents says something about how good this team really is. They have the seventh ranked defense that knows how to pressure opposing quarterbacks (18 sacks already). David Carr is in trouble. Let's talk about the Texans. They won. Whoppteedoo! They still suck. They are last in offense and second-to-last in defense in the league. Even with last week's win factored in, they are losing games on average by a score of 28-13! Their win last week was in spite of themselves. It was more about Cleveland's ineptitude and a bit of special teams luck than a great day by the Texans. Truth be told, Houston was lucky to come away with a win. Consider that they racked up all of 237 total yards, 11 first downs and in four second-half trips to the redzone, got no touchdowns. Their special teams was the MVP. They have played a tough schedule for sure but it doesn't get any easier this week. And, the Jags will be pissed off about losing last week and on guard for a letdown based on Houston squeaking out a win last week. Five stars on the Jags to absolutely crush the Texans.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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