2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 02, 2006
This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 8:26PM ET.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Monday 10/02 08:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Green Bay +11.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: LOSS
Yesterday was a day of mixed results for big favorites. We were on both Atlanta and Kansas City laying -7. They both won and covered very easily. Dallas (-9.5)also won in a blowout. But Carolina (-7), Cincinnati (-6) and Indianapolis (-9) didn't fair so well. Cincinnati was upset and Carolina and Indianapolis nearly suffered the same fate. Now we get Philadelphia laying double digits. What to make of it? Take the dog! Green Bay continues to get very little respect. Lots of folks expected a 4-or-fewer win season from the Pack coming into the year. They lost their first game 26-0 at home. This solidified in most bettors minds that Green Bay was terrible. The Pack played much better vs. New Orleans in week two but still lost. Again, the feeling was "yeah, like I said, Green Bay is horrible." Then, they upset Detroit last week as a seven point underdog. There's a trend here - they are getting better each week and gaining some much needed confidence. And, as we have since learned, Chicago is a great team and New Orleans is MUCH better than most thought. Will the Packers beat the Eagles? I don't give them much of a chance at that. But, I think they give them a fight and keep it under 12 points. Make no mistake about it, the Eagles are going to score here. Green Bay's defense is bad. But, Philly's defense is not really that good either. They are ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in yards/game and points/game allowed. Favre struggles against good defenses but given time to throw, he does alright. He's off a 25-36, 340 yard, 3 TD performance. Against the Eagles defense, I think Green Bay gets enough points to keep the final score respectable. Take Green Bay plus the points.